Heading into the 2023 MLB season, it looked like the New York Yankees and Houston Astros would be two of the premier teams in the American League. The Astros are a respectable 77-60, but the lead in the AL West belongs to a red-hot Seattle Mariners squad. For the Yankees, it’s been disappointment all around, and they’ve dopped below .500 in the season’s final month. These two underachieving teams square off on Sunday night in Houston. Let’s take a look at the Yankees-Astros odds and use the OddsShopper model to make a prediction and pick the best MLB bet.
Best MLB Yankees-Astros Bet & Prediction: Michael King’s K Prop
Yankees-Astros Odds, via FanDuel
Yankees: +118 | Astros: -138
Yankees +1.5: -182 | Astros -1.5: -150
Over 8.5: -115 | Under 8.5: -105
Things have not gone as expected in 2023 for the Yankees. They looked solid heading into the campaign, as Aaron Judge was coming off a historic 2022 season, they added veteran pitcher Carlos Rodon to their rotation and top prospect Anthony Volpe took over at shortstop. Unfortunately, Judge spent much of this year on the IL, as did Rodon, while Volpe never played up to his potential.
One of the bright spots in New York has been their bullpen. They’ve arguably put together the strongest bullpen in Major League Baseball, with Michael King starring as one of their leading arms. King sports a 2.96 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 73 innings. He has struck out 87 batters compared to 25 walks. The innings are a career high for King, as are his 43 appearances this year. Those numbers aren’t surprising given King’s success over the last couple seasons in New York, but he’s now doing so in extended time on the mound.
The Yankees have realized King’s potential and are transitioning him into a larger role. He’s been the team’s opener several times over the last two months. King is expected to start his fourth game of the year on Sunday in Houston.
Despite opening, it’s unlikely that King will see too much time in this Yankees-Astros game. He threw 61 pitches over four innings on Tuesday in Detroit, which was his longest of the season. That came on the heels of a 50-pitch outing against the Washington Nationals.
The Astros are much better than the Nationals or the Detroit Tigers. King is facing much better offensive talent this Sunday, and he is still unlikely to be fully stretched out. He’ll probably throw somewhere between 60 and 80 pitches.
Nevertheless, MLB betting markets are bullish on Michael King’s MLB prop bets. There’s plenty of value going under on King’s strikeout prop. You can grab King under 4.5 strikeouts at FanDuel at -164. This Yankees-Astros bet has a 3% positive expected value given it’s 64% win rate and true odds of -178. It’s worth laying about 1.7% of your bankroll if you’re using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
Best Yankees-Astros MLB Bet: Michael King Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-164) at FanDuel
