Viewers who tuned into yesterday’s Subway Series battle between the New York Yankees and New York Mets on TBS were treated to a close, one-run win for the Bronx Bombers. ESPN will carry the second game of this series, which features another pair of big-name pitchers on the mound. Let’s dig into the betting odds for Wednesday evening’s Yankees-Mets game to make our MLB predictions and pick the best bet.
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Best MLB Yankees-Mets Betting Pick & Prediction: Don’t Expect Many Runs in the Subway Series
Yankees-Mets Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Yankees: -110 | Mets: -110
Over 7.5: +100 | Under 7.5: -120
Two big-name, veteran pitchers will do battle in this one. The Mets will start RHP Justin Verlander (2-3), whose 4.85 ERA and 4.11 xERA prove that he is still at least a serviceable pitcher in his fourth decade. The Yankees will start RHP Gerrit Cole (7-1), whose 2.84 ERA looks great but isn’t sustainable relative to his 4.03 xERA.
These offenses are both solid but unspectacular, especially with key sluggers sidelined for both sides. The Mets rank eighth in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .332, but haven’t found a way to translate that into actual results — they rank only 16th in weighted on-base average. Their leader in xwOBA, first baseman Pete Alonso, is out. The Yankees rank 15th in xwOBA (.326) and 21st in wOBA (.312). Their team leader in xwOBA, outfielder Aaron Judge, is also out.
These teams combined to score 13 runs in the opening game of this series. Batters on both sides even hit home runs in the opening frame. It was an oddly efficient night for several members of both lineups, especially players toward the end of the batting order. Players who hit sixth through ninth accounted for six runs, 10 hits and four RBIs. That production is unlikely to be sustainable, especially at a pitcher’s park like Citi Field.
The 13 runs the Mets and Yankees scored last night all came within the first six innings. The Mets failed to plate a tying or go-ahead run for four innings after the Yankees took the lead in the top of the sixth; the Yankees failed to plate an insurance run for three innings as well. With strong pitching on the mound for both teams, let’s back them to stay under 3.5 runs through the first five innings — we can buy this wager at +106 via FanDuel Sportsbook. New to FanDuel? You can get up to $2,500 in first-bet insurance after placing a $5 wager!
Best Yankees-Mets MLB Pick: F5 Under 3.5 +106 at FanDuel
