The New York Yankees and New York Mets will do battle at Citi Field this week in a three-game series. TBS will carry the first game, which features a pair of superstar pitchers on the mound. Let’s dig into the betting odds for Tuesday night’s Yankees-Mets game to make our MLB predictions and pick the best bet. We’ll also go over whether it’s a smart spot to take advantage of the 20% NRFI/YRFI profit boost at DraftKings.
Readers looking for all the best MLB bets, picks and predictions throughout the season should check out OddsShopper’s articles and market-based models, including our Parlay Builder!
Best MLB Yankees-Mets Betting Pick & Prediction: NRFI/YRFI Boost Tonight
Yankees-Mets Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Yankees: +135 | Mets: -175
Over 8: +100 | Under 8: -120
NRFI: -130 | YRFI: +100
The pitchers are the first thing you’ll notice about this matchup. The New York Mets will start veteran RHP Max Scherzer (5-2), whose 3.71 ERA is a bit higher than his 3.19 xERA, which suggests he has gotten a bit unlucky. The New York Yankees will trot out RHP Luis Severino (0-1), whose 5.75 ERA and 6.18 xERA inspire little confidence. That said, Severino has made only four appearances since returning from injury and has pitched just 20.1 major-league innings.
Aside from their advantage at the mound, the Mets also have a slight leg up at the plate. Their offense ranks 15th in weighted on-base average, or wOBA, at .315, and eighth in expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .331. Those numbers suggest the pitcher-friendly Citi Field has suppressed some of their offense. The Yankees rank a dismal 22nd in wOBA at .311 but rank 12th in xwOBA at .327, which suggests, like Scherzer, they’ve gotten unlucky.
Injuries will affect both offenses. The Yankees remain without outfielder Aaron Judge, who leads the team in xwOBA at .476. The Mets won’t have first baseman Pete Alonso, who also leads the team in xwOBA at .405. The two big-name sluggers have missed time since last week and will remain on the 10-day injured list through the first game of this series, which explains the surprisingly low total posted for two public teams with star-studded offenses.
DraftKings has a 20% profit boost available for this game’s NRFI/YRFI markets. Those are always a fun way to get a quick payout on a game you may not want to watch to completion. The odds for neither offense to score a run in the first inning slot in at -130 (56.5%) at DraftKings, but that jumps to -109 (52.2%) with the boost. With both teams’ best batters sidelined, let’s fade the offenses early. New to DraftKings? You can get $200 in bonus bets after placing a $5 wager!
Best Yankees-Mets MLB Pick: NRFI -130 (-109 after 20% boost!) at DraftKings
