What a night. Nothing crazy, as we finished 2-1 and are now up to 62-51 on the year, but we caught the NRFI again in Coors Field while watching a YRFI fall flat in a high-scoring bloodbath. Such is life living on the first-inning edge. I’m back with three more plays on a rather spread-out Saturday slate. Be it solid starting pitching or strong hitting at the top of the lineup, there’s always an opportunity to attack an NRFI or YRFI, no matter the slate. Here are the three best NRFI/YRFI picks for Saturday, July 1.
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Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: Yes & No Run First Inning Bets
Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays YRFI (-130)
Kutter Crawford will square off against Yusei Kikuchi in what should be an eventful first inning. Neither pitcher has significant trouble spots and both are hovering at a 24% K rate. Boston’s batters should step up early: Alex Verdugo and Justin Turner, two of the team’s leadoff men, boast extremely low strikeout rates.
While the bet should cash in the top half of this inning, there is always the chance Kikuchi sneaks through unharmed. That’s where Toronto’s bats will finish the job and cash this ticket with a score. Much like the Sox, the Jays also boast low strikeout rates atop their lineup. Even Brandon Belt, with an absurdly high 37.9% K rate can draw walks at a better rate than anyone else in the lineup.
Cashing a YRFI bet is all about getting a base runner into scoring position early — once you’ve got that, you’ve got a great chance of cashing.
Houston Astros at Texas Rangers YRFI (-105)
A healthy dose of offense is also expected in this game, and it would be a shame to waste any of it with a scoreless first. It might simply come down to a mistake made by either Hunter Brown for Houston or Nathan Eovaldi for Texas. There are a couple of areas to attack but nothing glaring — Eovaldi has seen some balls crushed when occasionally pitching to contact, while Brown is even worse.
The matchups don’t necessarily play into each pitcher’s strengths, as each team has tough outs atop their lineups. It’s going to take a lot for both Brown and Eovaldi to activate strikeouts as Houston and Texas just don’t strike out enough. Look for either (or both!) team to plate a run early.
Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners NRFI (-135)
It’s rather inconceivable that a YRFI play would fail in a game that saw an offensive explosion, but last night is in the books. No reason to ignore the same game with similar value, it’s just the other side for tonight. This one rests on George Kirby and how much ace-like stuff he can give the Mariners. Kirby doesn’t walk anyone — not a soul — with an incredible 1.9% BB rate, so that helps against any Tampa approach of grinding him down.
Kirby hasn’t had a strong K rate all year but is surviving on limiting mistakes beyond just giving up walks. The Rays are a beefy lineup with power potential, but they should fall short against Kirby — at least in the first inning. The other half of this is Tyler Glasnow, who owns a 35.2% K rate. He’s got as good a shot as any to strike out the entire side.
