What a weird but profitable night. The Guardians somehow blew the bases loaded in the first to grant us the no runs first inning, or NRFI, bet. However, we were denied the 3-0 sweep due to complications with the Blue Jays and Dodgers. On to the next one! Here are three of the best MLB bets across baseball in the first inning, be it NRFI or YRFI. Targeting matchups that overwhelmingly favor a pitcher or batter is the best approach, then matching it with the best available number.
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Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Toronto Blue Jays at Los Angeles Dodgers YRFI (-115)
We’ll avenge our miss last night with a breakdown of either Chris Bassitt or Julio Urias. Neither are truly dominating in areas of concern here and are still facing some solid hitters. Urias has a 23% strikeout rate while Bassitt is down to 21.8%, which presents an issue for each opposing lineup. Mookie Betts remains one of the hardest leadoff hitters in the league to keep off first base, while Toronto is not likely to see George Springer — or any other leadoff candidate. It’s worth a shot here for one of these two pitchers to suffer some early struggles and give up a baserunner, which should be enough to lead to a run.
Chicago Cubs at Chicago White Sox YRFI (-130)
The good news about tonight’s cross-city battle in Chicago is that regardless of whether you side with the north or south side, both pitchers stand to give up some runs. Let’s back the YRFI. White Sox pitcher Michael Kopech has relied heavily on his four-seam fastball which has ultimately been his undoing. While it’s led to some strikeouts — a 25.3% strikeout rate is good across the league — it’s also yielded some loud contact and baserunners. Kopech is also battling a 14.1% walk rate which is astoundingly bad.
For the Cubs, Kyle Hendricks is limiting walks among some of the best in the league. He has also limited loud contact with solid performances in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Where he fails is a 16.1% strikeout rate and a couple of shaky numbers like his xBA and xwOBA. The Cubs should jump all over Kopech’s fastball while the White Sox will see at least one early baserunner. The game total might clear after one!
Los Angeles Angels at Detroit Tigers YRFI (-130)
The lone scoreless action takes us to Detroit where the Tigers had a strong victory against the Giants yesterday afternoon. Detroit isn’t as awful as before but faces a more difficult task in taking on Griffin Canning. He needs to avoid loud hits as much as possible but still boasts a 24.8% strikeout to 7.5% walk rate. Canning has been solid and now takes on a Detroit team looking for their third straight win.
The top of the Angels’ order will always present an issue with Shohei Ohtani looming, but Eduardo Rodriguez should be up for the challenge. The Tigers starter enters tonight with a 26.8% strikeout rate alongside a .289 xwOBA and 87.6 EV. He is pitching to contact and doing it well enough to outlast the Angels in the first inning, making this our top NRFI bet for today.
