It’s been a string of 1-1 finishes for us on our no-run first-inning bets so far in the MLB playoffs. Luckily, we’ve cashed some of the single NRFI bets at great odds, so I’m not feeding my family ice chips three meals a day … yet. Let’s dive right into our YRFI and NRFI picks for today.
The Divisional Round of the playoffs begins on Saturday with Game 1s across the board for the eight remaining teams. There are some pretty electric offenses, and great arms among the four series, so we’ll have to navigate our YRFI/NRFI bets wisely — ya know, like we do.
If you want more betting picks and information on these games as we get closer to first pitch, be sure to follow me on Twitter, as I’ll be updating the thread with our NRFI picks as lineups are announced, injuries come to light and more betting opportunities throughout the games. It’s the best way to get in touch with me if you have any questions surrounding any of these games, or our picks in general.
Best YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Yes & No Run First Inning Bets
Minnesota Twins vs. Houston Astros First Inning Bet
We backed the semi-dusty Justin Verlander in his last start of the regular season to extend our NRFI parlay winning streak, but we’re going to target the 40-year-old veteran this time. The Twins offense didn’t light the world on fire by any means against Toronto, but we did get visual proof that Royce Lewis is, in fact, him … and is still able to mash despite a bum hammy. Having that home run threat back in the Minnesota lineup is a plus, especially with a short porch in left. While this isn’t exclusively why we’re targeting this game for a YRFI, the Twins still could scratch one for us in the top half.
It was initially thought Joe Ryan would start Game 1, but the Twins decided on Bailey Ober. A quick glance at Ober’s numbers against the Astros in his career: .340 AVG, .392 OBP, .638 SLG, 4 BB and 3 HRs (in 47 at-bats). Ober has low-key been solid on NRFIs in 2023, going 19-7 on his no-run first-inning chances, including five straight. But take a walk down Narrative Street with me: the playoffs are a different animal, and this will be Ober’s first taste of postseason action. Ober doesn’t give up as many dongs as our dear friend Ryan, but he’s no stranger to giving up the home run ball (22 HRs allowed).
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The Astros have had time to rest and heal up any bumps and bruises they may have had ending the season, so they should be ready to tee off on the suspected starter. Houston was the No. 4-ranked first-inning offense in the regular season, and with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez facing a pitcher they’ve mashed this season, as well as being at home. This is the spot.
Best YRFI Bet Today: Twins-Astros for +105 at Caesars Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves First Inning Bet
Let’s start with this explosive Atlanta Braves offense. Hands down the best offense in baseball all season with Ronald Acuna Jr. leading the way and Matt Olson mashing taters (that’s slang for home runs if you haven’t been keeping up). The Phillies are likely to start left-hander Ranger Suarez in Game 1.
Now, you’d assume that any guy who is named Ranger would be a badass. However, this Ranger? He’s repping more of just the “bad” part. His 2023 wasn’t a great one, as he finished with a 4.18 ERA and 1.42 WHIP. Spoiler alert, allowing base runners against the Braves is almost certainly a death sentence. Not to mention, the Braves SMASH left-handed pitching and are slashing .288/.350/.521 and 76 HRs. How can we not like the Braves here?
We saw the Phillies offense come alive against the Marlins in Game 2 of their Wild Card series, capped off by the emphatic Bryson Stott grand slam. This is a good sign for the Philadelphia offense, as it will have to deal with Atlanta Braves ace Spencer Strider in Game 1 of the NLDS. Yes, I do know that Strider led the league in strikeouts by 44, and yes, I do know he won 20 games and was dominant the entire way. But, I also know I’m getting -105 on a yes-run first-inning bet in a game that features two of the best offenses batting in a park that produces runs.
Best YRFI Bet Today: Phillies-Braves for -105 at Caesars Sportsbook
Saturday’s NRFI/NRFI Parlay
Caesars did us a big favor by dropping lines before pitchers had been confirmed, which is always something to be looking out for in order to get the best odds. We’re firing up the Twins-Astros and Phillies-Braves YRFIs for a +300 parlay over at Caesars Sportsbook.
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