Rules were made to be broken. Now to be fair, there’s no set rule by management that mandates each day must have an NRFI play in the actual NRFI video/column, it’s just an unwritten rule of OddsShopper baseball. Today is the day where the NRFI gets flipped upside down and we sweep the board on all YRFI plays. That’s right, the best value in the later action focuses on first inning runs being scored rather than avoiding any early offense. Here are the top three first inning plays for tonight’s MLB slate! Let’s look at the top 3 best NRFI bets and keep cashing tickets.
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Best YRFI/NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Bets
Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics YRFI
One of the two losses suffered last night was in Oakland but no reason to force anything here. There’s an interesting pitching matchup featuring Cristian Javier vs Paul Blackburn. The latter facing a difficult Houston team to solve, especially with a 22.3% K rate. The Astros wont be able to blast away on Blackburn – he’s fairly good at limiting loud hits with a 28.9 hard hit percentage and a strong 87.5 EV, so expect Houston to work some counts.
Any mistake yields a baserunner which won’t be good for Blackburn. As already seen in this series, the A’s are capable of stealing a first inning score as they did it against a better pitcher. Javier is fine this year but not blowing people off the plate and is susceptible to an early mistake if Oakland can just show up with a pulse.
Philadelphia Phillies at Cleveland Guardians YRFI
Speaking of first inning mistakes, it’s the only hope Cleveland has in getting to Zach Wheeler. The good news for the Guardians is that it’s not as hard as advertised, as Wheeler has seen some early troubles. The Guardians are not an easy out when it comes to Ks which should help extend some early counts against Wheeler.
Once he settles in, the Phillies ace will be tough to slow down. Philadelphia has been a group of slow starters at times, but they still carry one of he best first inning bats over the past month and a half in Kyle Schwarber. This isn’t solely a bet on him hitting a jack right off the bat, but it’s been a valuable weapon for Philadelphia since the start of June. Tanner Bibbee will be tested right away and can’t afford to walk a leadoff batter.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Angels YRFI
Neither team scored last night through three innings yet the game still netted 13 total runs. We expect things to pick up a little sooner tonight especially with this pitching matchup. On the surface, there’s nothing wrong with Reid Detmers – especially armed with a 28.9% K rate. The issue is elsewhere, namely the 90.4 EV where balls seem to fly off contact. It’s truly enough for the Pirates to sneak a run, even if it’s a solo shot off a mistake pitch.
There really aren’t a bunch of strikeouts to be found in this Pirates lineup either. As for the Angels bats, they face an opener in Ryan Borucki who has surrendered a first inning run in three of his seven starts in July. Those came against Cleveland, Arizona, and Milwaukee – three teams with tough outs atop their lineups, similar to the Angels.
