The Atlanta Braves have the best record in baseball. They will bring their show on the road to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday night in the first game of a four-game set. While the Braves may be the best team in MLB, the Pirates are among the worst. Let’s look at Monday’s Braves-Pirates odds to make a prediction and pick the best MLB bet using OddsShopper’s market-based model.
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Braves-Pirates MLB Betting Pick & Prediction: Pittsburgh Youngster’s Power
Braves-Pirates Odds
Odds via BetRivers Sportsbook
Braves: -295 | Pirates: +240
Braves -1.5: -175 | Pirates +1.5: +140
Over 9: -103 | Under 9: -118
The Braves may be known for their power, but MLB fans and bettors cannot forget Spencer Strider. He has become the team’s ace in his second major league season, mostly behind incredible strikeout stuff. Strider is leading the league in strikeouts, and it is not even close. His 208 strikeouts are 31 better than the next-best strikeout pitcher, Kevin Gausman. He has also only walked 38 batters, leading to a 1.09 WHIP and 3.69 ERA. The only weak point for Strider might be that he does allow power and has given up 18 home runs, which is a bit higher than the rest of the leading pitchers in MLB.
Strider may give up power, but luckily he pitches behind one of the strongest offenses in baseball and the leading home run performers in the league. The Braves have a whopping 212 home runs in 2023, which are 33 more than the Los Angeles Dodgers. Every player on the Braves can rake, especially Matt Olson, who is atop the National League in home runs with 39 and trails just Shohei Ohtani for the major league home run lead.
As good as Strider and the Braves offense is, there is one Pirates player that can do just as much damage with the long ball. Jack Suwinski has 21 home runs in 357 plate appearances in 2023, his second as a pro. Suwinski knocked out 19 home runs a year ago in his rookie campaign, coming in nearly the same number of plate appearances. He is a true “three outcomes” player that either hits for power or does not hit at all, but when he gets ahold of one it has a good shot to go out. Suwinski is on pace for 30 home runs despite the Pirates’ poor overall record.
Tonight’s matchup with Strider could lead to a ton of strikeouts from Suwinski and the Pirates. However, Strider’s knack for giving up the long ball could mean some pop from Pittsburgh too. You can grab Suwinski to hit a home run for +540 at BetRivers. This Braves-Pirates bet has true odds of +513 and a 16% win rate. Those numbers give it a 4% positive expected value. It does not win often, so you will want to stake about 0.23% of your bankroll if you are using the full Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth.
Best Braves-Pirates MLB Pick: Jack Suwinski Over 0.5 Home Runs (+540) at BetRivers
