Chalk up another MLB parlay victory! We hit a solid +281 SGP for Dodgers-Rockies on Thursday, and I think that gives us some license to take a lower-odds, higher-win-percentage parlay for Sunday. OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder has identified an afternoon game as a solid +EV opportunity — albeit a bit lower than our other parlays. Let’s build ourselves a two-leg SGP — here is the best BetMGM MLB same-game parlay bet for Brewers-Padres courtesy of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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Brewers-Padres MLB Parlay: BetMGM SGP | William Contreras
We are going with value compared to the market, and as Loughy has explained to us, that often means leaning on unders. Given the markets and True Odds from OddsShopper, this is a long-term profitable parlay for Brewers-Padres.
Leg #1: William Contreras Under 0.5 RBIs
This may not seem like a high-win opportunity given that we are taking the Brewers’ two leaders in RBIs, but that is in fact the scenario we’re facing. Right now Contreras is 69% to fail to record an RBI on the road in San Diego.
Part of that is due to Contreras’ ice-cold month of June — a month where the Brewers have gone a disappointing 9-10. Contreras is slugging only .269 this month and has driven in just five runs in 18 games after driving in 44 his first 57.
Milwaukee also has a tougher matchup against Michael King and his 3.49 ERA, and though many are waiting for the other shoe to drop on the career reliever, King’s above-average FIP and ERA+ indicate he has been genuinely good.
The 69% expected win rate for Contreras under 0.5 RBIs offers -223 True Odds. As such, the -210 juice is still strong value, giving us a 2.4% edge on the market at BetMGM.
Leg #2: Willy Adames Under 0.5 RBIs
Contreras’ struggles have allowed Adames to move into first place on the Brewers in RBIs, as he is up to 54 total thanks to 15 this month. That said, Adames is not having a banner June either.
His OPS of .751 is solid, but it is also boosted way up by a .345 on-base percentage that comes mostly from walks. Adames has 14 this month and only 15 hits, so he is batting just .217. The odds of Adames walking in a run are pretty low and thus we’re fading him driving in a run here as well.
Now, Adames is likely hitting cleanup, and the guy in front of him is one of the few Brewers hitting the ball well: Christian Yelich. However, Yelich’s .311 average in June is accompanied by a mere .067 ISO — he has just three extra-base hits, one of which was a home run. And though Yelich is stealing some bases, for the most part when he gets on in front of Adames, he is standing at first. That’s not creating great RBI opportunities.
With OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder putting the Adames under’s True Odds at -196, his -190 BetMGM odds are +EV by a 1.0%. It’s not the biggest of edges, but it is still positive and puts our parlay in a good spot in terms of expected win rate. All told, we’re looking at a +125 parlay with a 45% chance of winning, giving us 3.23% positive value.
MLB Parlay Today: +125 at BetMGM
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