Even though Justin Steele seems to be out of the NL CY Young Award race, he has more important things to worry about. The Chicago Cubs are currently holding onto a one-game lead for the final NL Wild Card spot. The Miami Marlins are on their heels and will be sure to make up ground with their series against the New York Mets. For this must-win game, let’s dive into how we’re betting Steele as our top MLB player prop bet for Cubs-Braves.
Best MLB Player Prop Bet: Justin Steele | September 26
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Cubs-Braves Player Prop
When: 7:20 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta, Ga.
Justin Martin’s Target: Justin Steele at BetMGM
One of my favorite props to attack with pitchers is hits allowed, especially when the pitcher has one of the top walk rates in the game and has a difficult matchup on deck. Justin Steele checks all those boxes tonight. Steele ranks in the 93rd percentile in walk rate and has to face the best offense in recent memory, the Atlanta Braves.
The Braves, headlined by potential NL MVP Ronald Acuna Jr., already broke the National League record for most home runs hit in a season with 299. They find themselves nine home runs behind the 2019 Minnesota Twins for the record. With six games left in the regular season, the Braves look like a lock to make history. History starts tonight against Steele, who has allowed at least six hits in 12 of his last 15 starts. After a dominating start to his 2023 campaign, Steele has had rough outings in September. The Arizona Diamondbacks got to him in back-to-back starts with 13 combined hits, while the woeful Pittsburgh Pirates put together eight hits and took Steele out of the game in three innings in his last appearance.
It gets worse for Steele. This will be his second start against the Braves this season. His first start came in August, when he allowed eight hits at home on his way to lasting 5.1 innings. The familiarity for this loaded lineup will have Steele in trouble all night long in a must-win game.
Best Cubs-Braves Player Prop Bet: Justin Steele Over 5.5 Hits Allowed (-120 at BetMGM)
