The Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds get back to the top of the rotation with their Opening Day starters on the mound, but are we sure that means they’ll be able to slow down these offenses? Our Cubs-Reds best bet suggests not.
Marcus Stroman and Hunter Greene start Wednesday’s opener in the third game of a series that has seen 17 and 13 runs in the previous two games, respectively. Weather may have an impact, as rain and thunderstorms in Cincinnati could force either a delay or imperfect conditions. Add in crosswinds over 20 mph and there are some other variables to consider for our Cubs-Reds best bet.
The good news is we have clear value after searching the oddsboards.
Cubs-Reds Odds, Preview, Bet
Odds via BetRivers
Cubs Moneyline: -107
Reds Moneyline: -107
Total runs: 8 (-115)
Cubs-Reds Preview
Marcus Stroman’s 2023 debut was impressive, as the right-hander shutout the Milwaukee Brewers over six innings while striking out eight and allowing just three hits. On the other side, Hunter Greene was very Hunter Greene. He only recorded 10 outs, but eight of them were via strikeout. He walked three and allowed three runs in his 3.1 innings.
Now Greene faces a lineup that has found success, albeit in a very small sample size. Cody Bellinger, Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner each homered off Greene last year. On the other side, Wil Myers is the only player with more than 10 at-bats against Stroman, who spent most of his career int he American League.
The Reds might have a sneaky-good offense, despite the lack of name-power. And Hunter Greene’s ability to implode at any time can’t be ignored.
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Cubs-Reds Best Bet
Ultimately, this is a numbers play using OddsShopper Premium, which uses an algorithm to pit the sportsbooks against each other to find the line that is off market and find the value.
That value is at BetRivers, where the total is 8 (-115). The rest of the market is a full half-run higher at 8.5, which means this line could move fast. But any time we can beat the market by a full half-run, it’s clear betting value that will return a long-term positive ROI.
If this line moves, use OddsShopper Premium to find the new best line and compare prices. Some of the 8.5 totals are still -120.
Final Cubs-Reds Best Bet: Over 8 (-115)
