The Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants are two of the biggest surprises in baseball. Both teams are fighting it out for the NL West league, with the consolation prize a potential Wild Card berth. Let’s dig into Monday night’s Diamondbacks-Giants odds to make a prediction and pick the best MLB bet using OddsShopper’s market-based betting model!
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Diamondbacks-Giants Pick & Prediction: Marco Luciano MLB Home Run Bet
Diamondbacks-Giants Jays Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Diamondbacks: +114 | Giants: -134
Diamondbacks +1.5: -182 | Giants -1.5: +150
Over 8.5: -108 | Under 8.5: -112
Going into 2023, everyone expected the Los Angeles Dodgers to run away with the NL West. That may still happen as the Dodgers look to add talent at the trade deadline, beginning with Amed Rosario and Lance Lynn. However, the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks have proved that they can hang. Both clubs are toward the top of the division heading into the home stretch of the 2023 MLB season. The San Francisco Giants are 58-48 and two games behind the division leading Dodgers. The D-Backs are 56-50 and four games off the lead. It may be tough to win the division, but the consolation prize for San Francisco and Arizona could be a wild card appearance.
They can prove their chops in a Diamondbacks-Giants series that kicks off on Monday night in San Francisco. The Giants will most likely have a bullpen game with Jakob Junis currently listed as their Opener. The Diamondbacks will have Ryne Nelson on the hill. The young right-hander has proved to be effective enough to get by in 2023. While Nelson is nothing to write home about he can certainly keep them afloat in a Giants’ park that hinders power. The run total for this game is Over/Under 8.5 runs, so the pitching could shine.
The Moneyline odds favor the Giants, so there’s a slightly better chance that they’ll win the game and outscore Arizona. Most importantly is that the Diamondbacks-Giants odds are off the mark on one MLB bet for a home run by Marco Luciano. The Giants IF was just called up from their AAA affiliate and has a ton of potential. Luciano is a Top 100 prospect in baseball according to MLB.com and one of the leading farmhands in the Giants’ organization.
You can buy Luciano to hit a home run for +840 at FanDuel. The true odds of this Diamondbacks-Giants MLB bet should be +756, giving it a 9% positive expected value. You can expect the bet to win about 13% of the time, which is highly variant. Using the Kelly Criterion for sustainable growth, it’s worth betting about .35-.4% of your bankroll. This one won’t hit often, but when it does it will pay off at a high clip. Just be careful to look out for the Giants lineup and be sure that Luciano is in it. After all, FanDuel‘s house rules lock a bet in if a player gets in a game even if they aren’t in the starting lineup.
Best Diamondbacks-Giants MLB Pick: Marco Luciano Over 0.5 Home Runs (+830) at FanDuel
