It is a typical hump day in Major League Baseball as the action is spread across the afternoon. It’s still a full slate, 16 games with a double header, but seven of the contests start before 630 p.m. ET. Looking at the later action, it should come as little surprise that the most value we found is in the Diamondbacks-Royals game. We look to the DraftKings Pick6 optimizer on OddsShopper for guidance as we give you our top two DraftKings Pick6 MLB predictions of the night.
Here’s the lowdown on DraftKings Pick6: It works like other pick’em platforms, allowing you to make entries with two to six picks and rewarding you with larger payouts for more correct choices. Unlike traditional sites, this new format is peer-to-peer, so your objective is to outscore other players in pre-selected tournaments rather than the house. Therefore, a contrarian strategy is crucial!
DraftKings Pick6 MLB Predictions Today
Ryne Nelson M/L Than 3.5 Total Strikeouts
This is one of the worst pitching matchups on the docket and should live up to the lowly expectations. We start with Ryne Nelson, who has putrid numbers pretty much across the board, including a 17% strikeout rate. His .280 xBA shouldn’t be overlooked, as it’s a main culprit as to why Nelson is struggling. He’s limited some of the hard contact against him, but there’s just too much working for the Royals in this matchup.
Getting to four strikeouts now seems rather difficult, especially with a guy who should struggle without the bailout strikeout in his arsenal. Bobby Witt Jr. is far from the only obstacle in Nelson’s way, but he is clearly the biggest. Salvador Perez also headlines a group of five everyday players with strikeout rates of 19% or less. The Royals should be able to work counts and chase Nelson from this game well before he hits three strikeouts, let alone the four needed to clear the total. This one goes to the Royals as we fade Nelson.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction Today: Ryne Nelson Less Than 3.5 Total Strikeouts
Michael Wacha M/L Than 2.5 Earned Runs
Make no mistake, as bad as this matchup is on the mound, Michael Wacha is better than Nelson. The matchup isn’t as easy as the play indicates, but the DraftKings Pick6 optimizer likes this for a couple of reasons. First, we always stay ahead of market price. Our implied odds on this play will beat the true market price, giving us an edge — even if it’s a slight one, it’s still +EV. The second reason is countering the field with a reasonable request: That Wacha simply pitches well against a lineup he can beat.
Wacha’s 21% strikeout to 7% walk rate isn’t horrible by any means; it’s better than serviceable in this case. We also aren’t worried about how he gets through five-plus innings if it’s contact or strikeouts either work. The bigger issue is keeping Arizona under wraps; not allowing them to score three earned runs during his outing. Wacha should get a little longer of a leash than Nelson, and the Royals should be playing with a lead — more than likely early in the game.
There’s always a chance an error or defensive lapse can lead to runs not allocated to Wacha’s total, but we prefer to look at the better pitcher handling the majority of Arizona’s lineup. The top three are going to cause some fits but Wacha has a little cushion with two earned runs.
DraftKings Pick6 Prediction Today: Michael Wacha Less Than 2.5 Earned Runs
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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