It’s time to continue our Lindy’s Best MLB Locks Today series. For Friday’s expert MLB picks, we are taking our focus to two games, one of which has a top-shelf strikeout pitcher getting a great line against an elite (or is it the opposite of elite?) strikeout opponent.
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Expert MLB Picks Today: Mets-Twins | September 8
Orioles-Red Sox
A staple of the betting card from the beginning of the season has been these road Orioles. Now boasting a phenomenal record of 46-25 away from home, there’s no reason to let up in this spot with reliable starter Kyle Bradish on the mound versus Tanner Houck and the Red Sox.
While right-handed pitchers normally struggle against this lefty-heavy Red Sox lineup, this actually profiles well for Bradish based on his reverse splits. Against right-handed hitters this season, he carries a 22.9% strikeout rate and a .153 xISO. Against left-handed hitters? A whopping 25.4% strikeout rate and a .139 xISO. Add in his overall solid .306 xwOBA and 6.9% walk rate against everyone, and this is a pitcher I’m willing to back blindly against most starting pitchers in baseball when a line is near standard juice considering the strength of the lineup backing him up.
And that lineup sets up slightly better against Houck due to one very obvious fact: He has a MAJOR lefty power problem. The .268 ISO he gives up against left-handed hitters looks preposterous and makes you think he’d have to be due for regression at some point. But the .232 xISO against that handedness is jaw-dropping in and of itself; his outlook is bleak no matter how you slice it. And no doubt about it: Houck is lights out against righties. But I’m only projecting two — Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays — to be in the Orioles lineup today.
Finally, the Baltimore moneyline has moved from even money at open to north of a standard -110 everywhere. But even at -120 on DraftKings where the best available line currently sits, I think this play remains a slam dunk. The implied odds of a -120 bet are 54.55%, but I’m calculating the Orioles win percentage in this spot around 58%, making the breakeven line where you wouldn’t want to make this play anymore -138. So until the line approaches that number, it’s all systems go for another Baltimore moneyline lock.
Best MLB Locks Today: Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (LOCK) at DraftKings
Mets-Twins
For anyone following my content from Day 1 of the MLB season (that feels FOREVER ago, doesn’t it?), then you know I’m as big of a Kodai Senga fan as they come. But the fact that I’m also a lifelong Twins fan has me in some sort of way for Friday night’s affair. Senga will visit Target Field in the best strikeout matchup a pitcher could ask for, and coming off outings of 10 and 12 strikeouts in his previous two starts, I assumed the bar would be set high by sportsbooks to invest in the over on his strikeout props.
I thought wrong. Senga’s line is set at just 6.5 across the industry, with a best available line of -155 at BetMGM. This is simply too low for a pitcher with a shade over a 29% strikeout rate to both lefties and righties alike, the best pitch (and nickname of a pitch) in baseball with his “Ghost Fork” that carries an asinine 60.2% whiff, and a matchup against my Twins and their league-high-by-a-lot 27.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
And despite the Mets being well out of contention, they’ve shown no signs of slowing down Senga’s workload, as he’s thrown at least 104 pitches in three of his past four outings. So as long as the Mets ace doesn’t spike a random walk problem like what plagued him earlier in the season, the over of his 6.5 strikeouts is by far my favorite prop play on today’s board.
Best MLB Locks Today: Kodai Senga Over 6.5 Strikeouts (LOCK) at BetMGM
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