FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for August 13 (2024)

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR/9 allowed (source):*

Taijuan Walker (PHI): 2.4 xHR/9
14.1 xHR in 53 IP

Kutter Crawford (BOS): 2 xHR/9
29.3 xHR in 132.2 IP

Charlie Morton (ATL): 1.6 xHR/9
20 xHR in 114.2 IP

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Oracle Park (SF vs. ATL)
10 mph to CF

Angel Stadium (LAA vs. TOR)
7 mph to CF

Fenway Park (BOS vs. TEX)
5 mph to RCF

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

TEX @ BOS
o10-110

NYY @ CWS
o9-12

TOR @ LAA
o9-105

@is_sirois Yandy Diaz – TB: +680

We’re going with another long shot to go yard today, but I think the price we’re getting at FanDuel is just too good to pass up. I locked in Yandy Diaz to hit a home run at +700 this morning, and, although the price has since dropped somewhat, it’s still worth an investment at the current number. Almost every other book has this bet in the +500 range.

Although Diaz isn’t known as a big-time home run hitter, he is slashing an impressive .337/.377/.529 versus LHPs with three home runs. He’ll rake on LHP Yusei Kikuchi in the Trop tonight, and Kikuchi is allowing RHBs like Diaz to slash .275/.323/.441 with 16 home runs.

Kikuchi has been more beatable than you may think. His .251 xBA (39th percentile) and 10.1% barrel rate (12th) demonstrate that batters are hitting reasonably well against him, especially for power. Although Kikuchi has allowed only 17 home runs on the year, he has coughed up 19 xHR and 18 xHR in the Trop.

Let’s target Diaz to go yard — or to at least record multiple bases. He’s trading at +115 at FanDuel for multiple bags, which is far too generous for a leadoff guy with a .275 xBA (84th) and .417 xSLG (57th) who clearly hits well against LHPs.

Oh, and since it’s Dinger Tuesday, we’ll get $5 for any home run that the Astros hit tonight, too. I’m not a believer in Tampa Bay’s RHP Shane Baz, but I am a believer in Yordan Alvarez and Yainer Diaz.

@nd_joyce Teoscar Hernandez – LAD: +400

It feels like every Dinger Tuesday is a Colin Rea start. And it wouldn’t be a proper Dinger Tuesday attempt if we didn’t lose money betting against him. Tonight, our money goes on 2024 Home Run Derby champion Teoscar Hernandez (+400). 

Before last night’s game, Hernandez was riding a nine-game hitting streak. He has also been smoking hot so far in August, hitting .390, slugging .890 and mashing four homers. So, to say he’s been dialed in would be a bit of an understatement. 

Rea has somehow only allowed four earned runs over his last four starts, and two of those games were against the Braves. How he is still outperforming the third-highest expected ERA differential in the entire MLB is beyond me. But, I’m willing to bet against it one more time. 

He’ll likely give Hernandez a steady diet of sinkers, cutters and sweepers, and maybe the occasional straight four-seamer. 

Of the main three pitches he’ll see, our home run hero is slugging .562 or better, which we absolutely love to see.

Miller Park — I refuse to call the Brewers stadium by its stupid new name — is the fifth-best park for right-handed home run power over the course of the last three years, according to Baseball Savant’s MLB Park Factor rankings. So, add another feather in the cap of Teoscar.

Eventually the clock will strike midnight on Colin Rea, and he’ll turn back into a pumpkin. And I want to be there to capitalize when it happens.