We’re so back. Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel is here, and our experts have cooked up some bets for you to tail today. Last week wasn’t our best, but today’s slate looks pretty good for home runs, and with home run odds boosts at DraftKings and Caesars, you’ve got more than just FanDuel to think about. We’ve got plenty to discuss, so let’s dive into our top Dinger Tuesday home run picks today 00 but first, we’ll run through how Dinger Tuesday works.
Here’s how Dinger Tuesday operates: When you place a $25 wager on a player to hit a home run, you receive $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit in that game by ANY player (up to $25). Check out our Dinger Tuesday strategy guide for more information. If you haven’t signed up yet at FanDuel, you can even get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. Without further ado, let’s dive into our slate breakdown and expert picks for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday:
Home Run Picks & Strategy for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday | August 13
What Do You Need to Know for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday?
Starting Pitchers to Fade
by xHR/9 allowed (source):*
Taijuan Walker (PHI): 2.4 xHR/9
14.1 xHR in 53 IP
Kutter Crawford (BOS): 2 xHR/9
29.3 xHR in 132.2 IP
Charlie Morton (ATL): 1.6 xHR/9
20 xHR in 114.2 IP
Stadiums to Target
by wind speed out (source):
Oracle Park (SF vs. ATL)
10 mph to CF
Angel Stadium (LAA vs. TOR)
7 mph to CF
Fenway Park (BOS vs. TEX)
5 mph to RCF
*Minimum of 25 IP.
OddsShopper’s Expert Home Run Picks
@nd_joyce Yandy Diaz – TB: +680
Full analysis below!
@is_sirois Teoscar Hernandez – LAD: +400
Full analysis below!
@EricLindquist Brent Rooker – +390
@shanderbets Jesus Sanchez – MIA: +450
@JoshEngleman Alec Burleson – STL: +420
@Loughy_D Eugenio Suarez – ARI: +420
@newzgod_dfs Bryce Harper – PHI: +350
Home Run Pick Analysis: Yandy Diaz & Teoscar Hernandez
@is_sirois Yandy Diaz – TB: +680
We’re going with another long shot to go yard today, but I think the price we’re getting at FanDuel is just too good to pass up. I locked in Yandy Diaz to hit a home run at +700 this morning, and, although the price has since dropped somewhat, it’s still worth an investment at the current number. Almost every other book has this bet in the +500 range.
Although Diaz isn’t known as a big-time home run hitter, he is slashing an impressive .337/.377/.529 versus LHPs with three home runs. He’ll rake on LHP Yusei Kikuchi in the Trop tonight, and Kikuchi is allowing RHBs like Diaz to slash .275/.323/.441 with 16 home runs.
Kikuchi has been more beatable than you may think. His .251 xBA (39th percentile) and 10.1% barrel rate (12th) demonstrate that batters are hitting reasonably well against him, especially for power. Although Kikuchi has allowed only 17 home runs on the year, he has coughed up 19 xHR and 18 xHR in the Trop.
Let’s target Diaz to go yard — or to at least record multiple bases. He’s trading at +115 at FanDuel for multiple bags, which is far too generous for a leadoff guy with a .275 xBA (84th) and .417 xSLG (57th) who clearly hits well against LHPs.
Oh, and since it’s Dinger Tuesday, we’ll get $5 for any home run that the Astros hit tonight, too. I’m not a believer in Tampa Bay’s RHP Shane Baz, but I am a believer in Yordan Alvarez and Yainer Diaz.
@nd_joyce Teoscar Hernandez – LAD: +400
It feels like every Dinger Tuesday is a Colin Rea start. And it wouldn’t be a proper Dinger Tuesday attempt if we didn’t lose money betting against him. Tonight, our money goes on 2024 Home Run Derby champion Teoscar Hernandez (+400).
Before last night’s game, Hernandez was riding a nine-game hitting streak. He has also been smoking hot so far in August, hitting .390, slugging .890 and mashing four homers. So, to say he’s been dialed in would be a bit of an understatement.
Rea has somehow only allowed four earned runs over his last four starts, and two of those games were against the Braves. How he is still outperforming the third-highest expected ERA differential in the entire MLB is beyond me. But, I’m willing to bet against it one more time.
He’ll likely give Hernandez a steady diet of sinkers, cutters and sweepers, and maybe the occasional straight four-seamer.
Of the main three pitches he’ll see, our home run hero is slugging .562 or better, which we absolutely love to see.
Miller Park — I refuse to call the Brewers stadium by its stupid new name — is the fifth-best park for right-handed home run power over the course of the last three years, according to Baseball Savant’s MLB Park Factor rankings. So, add another feather in the cap of Teoscar.
Eventually the clock will strike midnight on Colin Rea, and he’ll turn back into a pumpkin. And I want to be there to capitalize when it happens.
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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