FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for July 2 (2024)

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR/9 allowed (source):*

Hayden Wesneski (CHC): 1.7 xHR/9
8.7 xHR in 45 IP

Kutter Crawford (BOS): 1.5 xHR/9
15.9 xHR in 94 IP

Carlos Carrasco (CLE): 1.5 xHR/9
11.8 xHR in 70 IP

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Wrigley Field (CHC vs. PHI)
15 mph to LCF, 77° F, 54% humidity

Kauffman Stadium (KC vs. TB)
12.5 mph to LCF, 95° F, 56% humidity

Oakland Coliseum (OAK vs. LAA)
10 mph to RCF, 89° F, 35% humidity

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

MIL @ COL
o11–115

TB @ KC
o9.5+100

PHI @ CHC
o9.5+102

@EricLindquist Josh Naylor – CLE: +340

@JazzrazDFS Trea Turner – PHI: +420

@nd_joyce Yordan Alvarez – HOU: +310
Full analysis below!

@shanderbets Juan Soto – NYY: +350

@is_sirois Christian Yelich – MIL: +420
Full analysis below!

@Loughy_D Jose Ramirez – CLE: +320

@nd_joyce Yordan Alvarez – HOU: +310

The summer of Yordan officially started yesterday when he blasted his 17th home run of the season. We’re running it back again today on Dinger Tuesday with a Yordan Alvarez +310 home run bet today against Jose Berrios.

Since June 25, Alvarez had been heating up, having hits in five of six games, including two multi-hit games. And in that six-game stretch, he had four extra-base hits, so he’d been tapping back into the power.

Tonight, Alvarez will see Berrios, who throws four pitches he has positive run values on this season — sinker, slurve, changeup and four-seamer.

Alvarez is rocking a 46.5% hard-hit rate this season, and he’s got an 89th percentile barrel rate in all of baseball. So, despite the home runs being down a bit so far this season, he’s still getting the barrel to the ball frequently and hitting it hard (92.9 average exit velocity).

And when we check in on how he performs against right-handers, we see his absolutely absurd .300 career ISO, which basically breaks the Fangraphs chart for what is considered excellent (.250).

We’re seeing one of the best hitters in baseball starting to get really dialed in, and with a guy like Berrios, who has allowed 12 home runs to left-handed batters this season, we’re in a good spot to cash this home run bet tonight.

@is_sirois Christian Yelich – MIL: +420

I’m not reinventing the wheel here. We’re backing a very talented batter in a very friendly ballpark for home runs. Coors Field’s high elevation makes it a great spot for dingers — and a great spot for Dinger Tuesday. The Rockies and Brewers may have gotten all the scoring done with in yesterday’s game, but with LHP Dallas Keuchel and RHP Ryan Feltner on the bump, I doubt that’s the case.

We’re targeting Christian Yelich here despite his underwhelming power this season largely due to the price and environment. That said, Yelich remains an exceptional batter. His .292 xBA (93rd percentile) is elite, and his .444 xSLG (68th) is still very good. Yelich may have only 6.2 xHR to his name this season, but he just went yard on Sunday, and Coors Field is more forgiving than most parks.

Likewise, RHP Ryan Feltner is more forgiving than most pitchers. He is coughing up 1.4 xHR/9 this season and would be giving up 1.5 HR/9 if he played every game in Coors Field. Feltner is also allowing lefty batters like Yelich to slash .311/.357/.533 with 23 extra-base hits and eight home runs. Against RHPs, Yelich is slashing .327/.404/.500 with 14 extra-base hits and five home runs.

I bought Yelich for multiple bases (-145 at FanDuel) and a home run (+420 at FanDuel). Although his lack of home run production to this point is a concern, I feel comfortable about wagering 1.5 units on his total bases market and 0.5 units on him to go yard.