Don’t you love betting on home runs? We’ve got a bunch of great promos to help us out with that today, including Tuesday Dingers at Caesars, Homerfest at DraftKings and, above all, Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel. Last week saw our experts cash Yordan Alvarez at +310 (hat tip to Nathan and Trea Turner at +420 (hat tip to Ben). Let’s dive into our top Dinger Tuesday home run picks today, but first, we’ll run through how Dinger Tuesday works. If you tail any of these bets, you can win a $25 DraftKings gift card — click here to find out how to enter!
Here’s how Dinger Tuesday operates: When you place a $25 wager on a player to hit a home run, you receive $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit in that game by ANY player (up to $25). Check out our Dinger Tuesday strategy guide for more information. If you haven’t signed up yet at FanDuel, you can even get $150 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. Without further ado, let’s dive into our slate breakdown and expert picks for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday:
Home Run Picks & Strategy for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday | July 9
What Do You Need to Know for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday?
Starting Pitchers to Fade
by xHR/9 allowed (source):*
Dean Kremer (BAL): 1.9 xHR/9
11.8 xHR in 55 IP
Kenta Maeda (DET): 1.8 xHR/9
12.7 xHR in 63 IP
Carlos Rodon (NYY): 1.7 xHR/9
18.6 xHR in 99 IP
Stadiums to Target
by wind speed out (source):
Fenway Park (BOS vs. OAK)
15 mph to LCF, 86° F, 59% humidity
Citi Field (NYM vs. WSH)
12.5 mph to LCF, 84° F, 70% humidity
Citizens Bank Park (PHI vs. LAD)
10 mph to CF, 93° F, 51% humidity
*Minimum of 25 IP.
OddsShopper’s Expert Home Run Picks
If you tail any of our experts’ home run bets, you can win a $25 DraftKings gift card — click here for details!
@EricLindquist Trea Turner – PHI: +400
@nd_joyce Oneil Cruz – PIT: +390
@is_sirois Juan Soto – NYY: +360
Full analysis below!
@Loughy_D Jarren Duran – BOS: +390
Full analysis below!
@shanderbets Elly De La Cruz – CIN: +430
Home Run Pick Analysis: Jarren Duran & Juan Soto
@Loughy_D Jarren Duran – BOS: +390
If you’ve ever wondered why Joey Estes has been so much better at home this season — outside of drawing some pretty forgiving matchups — you need not look any further than the park itself.
The Oakland Coliseum limits home runs more than any park not located in San Francisco, which greatly benefits a pitcher like Estes, who is inducing ground balls at a shocking 21 percent clip, which is in the first percentile.
His rates against LHBs have been even more troublesome, though — he sports an 18.4 ground ball rate, 14.9 strikeout rate and a 11.8 soft contact rate, all of which could get him into serious trouble tonight at Fenway Park, where winds are blowing 14 mph out to center field.
Jarren Duran isn’t one of the league’s preeminent power bats, but he does boast a .256 ISO (.219 xISO) vs. righties, with nine of his 10 home runs coming against opposite-handed arms. Estes, meanwhile, is coughing up an ugly .264 ISO (.267 xISO) to lefty bats on the year.
@is_sirois Juan Soto – NYY: +360
Look, I get it. Juan Soto hasn’t been the beast he was to start the season. He is slashing a miserable .182/.333/.364 in July with one lonely home run. But even amid this slump, Soto is still slashing .294/.430/.554 on the year with 21 home runs. Let’s trust him to right the ship tonight.
Soto remains one of the MLB’s best bats. His .311 xBA (98th percentile) and .632 xSLG (99th) demonstrate this fact. He has mashed 21 actual home runs but has 23.9 expected home runs to his name, including 22 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at the Trop.
He draws a matchup with RHP Ryan Pepiot, who has struggled against opposite-handed batters this year. Pepiot is allowing LHBs to slash .226/.327/.436 with 14 extra-base hits and six home runs. Soto has four plate appearances against Pepiot and recorded one walk, one base hit and one home run.
We’re getting Soto at too good of a price to pass up. Let’s back him to tally multiple bases (+130 at BetMGM) and to go yard (+360 at FanDuel). With Pepiot allowing 1.3 xHR/9 — and New York’s own Carlos Rodon allowing 1.7 — this is a prime spot to hit for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday. It certainly helps that every other book has Soto’s home run odds at +350 or shorter.
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
