FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for June 18 (2024)

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR per 9, min. 20 IP (source):

Roddery Munoz (MIA): 2.5 xHR/9
8 HR & 7.2 xHR in 25.2 IP

Slade Cecconi (ARI): 1.8 xHR/9
12 HR & 9.1 xHR in 44.1 IP

Triston McKenzie (CLE): 1.7 xHR/9
14 HR & 13.2 xHR in 82.2 IP

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Wrigley Field (CHC vs. SF)
18 mph to LCF, 86° F, 54% humidity

Citizens Bank Park (PHI vs. SD)
11.5 mph to CF, 87° F, 46% humidity

Oakland Coliseum (OAK vs. KC)
9 mph to RCF, 70° F, 47% humidity

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

LAD @ COL
o11-110

SF @ CHC
o9.5-105

ARI @ WSH
o9-112

@EricLindquist Josh Naylor – CLE: +370

@JazzrazDFS Giancarlo Stanton – NYY: +300

@nd_joyce Cody Bellinger – CHC: +480
Full analysis below!

@shanderbets Bryce Harper – PHI: +340

@is_sirois – Julio Rodriguez – SEA: +420
Full analysis below!

@JoshEngleman Trevor Larnach – MIN: +450

@gehrenbergdfs Matt Chapman – SF: +300

@Loughy_D Yordan Alvarez – HOU: +215

@nd_joyce Cody Bellinger – CHC: +480

The wind is blowing out nearly 20 mph at Wrigley Field, and we’re getting almost +500 odds for a left-handed batter with a career .244 ISO against right-handed pitching. How can we pass this up for Dinger Tuesday? 

Cody Bellinger gets the friendliest of environments in the friendly confines tonight, and has a matchup against righty Logan Webb, who has allowed a .374 SLG% to lefties this season. 

Webb relies on a three-pitch mix to lefties —changeup-sinker-sweeper. Let’s look at how Bellinger fares against those three pitches:

Changeup: 3 Run Value, .318 AVG, .636 SLG, 22.2% Hard Hit 
Sweeper: 2 Run Value, .364 AVG, .636 SLG, 20% Hard Hit
Sinker: -1 Run Value, .257 AVG, .400 SLG, 43.3% Hard Hit

Clearly, Bellinger handles the changeup and the sweeper well. The hard-hit rate on the sinker is really nice, but it doesn’t sync up with the surface-level numbers, so I would assume there is some regression coming in a positive way on that pitch for him in the future. 

Getting nearly 5-to-1 on our money for Bellinger to have a crack at a wind-aided homer on any flyball in Wrigley tonight feels like a gift. 

@is_sirois Julio Rodriguez – SEA: +420

It’s been a rough start for Julio Rodriguez, especially after the dominant performance he put together last season. Rodriguez slashed .275/.333/.485 with 32 home runs in 2023 but is slashing just .268/.319/.361 with seven home runs this year. That said, there are signs Rodriguez is heating up, and I’m backing him to go yard tonight.

Rodriguez has begun to rediscover his power in recent days. Over the last 15, he is slashing .260/.339/.460 with three home runs, a line much closer to what he recorded over the span of last season. His .276 xBA (81st percentile) and .443 xSLG (67th) both suggest he should continue to trend in the right direction.

We’re also getting Rodriguez outside of Seattle tonight, which is huge. T-Mobile Park is known as a pitcher’s park for good reason, and we saw it limit last year’s home run derby. This year, T-Mobile Park ranks 19th in park factors for home runs to righties, while Progressive Field ranks a friendlier 10th.

It’s RHP Triston McKenzie taking the bump for the Guardians today, and he has struggled with the long ball all year. McKenzie has coughed up 13.2 xHR this season, including 16 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at his home park. McKenzie is a fastball-dependent pitcher, and with his velo down to 90.8 mph, Rodriguez should feast.

I’ve got Rodriguez to get multiple bases (+105 at BetMGM) and go yard (+420 at FanDuel). McKenzie is throwing his four-seamer about 50% of the time, and Rodriguez has a .505 xSLG against that pitch this year after recording a .489 last year. Even if he can’t send one of those over the fence, he should be able to lift one for an extra-base hit.