As the NBA and NHL seasons have come to a close, we’re in the dog days of summer, and that means it’s time to bet on the MLB. The books are all pushing their home run promotions today, so what are we doing this time around for Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel? Keep reading for all of our staff’s picks. Let’s run through how the promotion works and then get into our Dinger Tuesday picks. If any of these home run picks hit, you can get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 — keep reading to find out how!
Here’s how Dinger Tuesday works: When you place a $25 wager on a player to hit a home run, you receive $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit in that game by ANY player (up to $25). Check out our Dinger Tuesday strategy guide for more information. If you haven’t signed up yet at FanDuel, you can even get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. Without further ado, let’s dive into our slate breakdown and expert picks for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday:
Home Run Picks & Strategy for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday | June 25
What Do You Need to Know for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday?
Starting Pitchers to Fade
by xHR/9 allowed (source):
Kyle Hendricks (CHC): 1.71 xHR/9
9.6 xHR in 50.2 IP
Logan Allen (CLE): 1.68 xHR/9
14.1 xHR in 75.2 IP
Luis Castillo (SEA): 1.38 xHR/9
14.5 xHR in 94.1 IP
Stadiums to Target
by wind speed out (source):
Minute Maid Park (HOU vs. COL)
10 mph to CF, 90° F, 68% humidity
Kauffman Stadium (KC vs. MIA)
10 mph to LCF, 95° F, 45% humidity
Camden Yards (BAL vs. CLE)
9 mph to LCF, 91° F, 30% humidity
OddsShopper’s Expert Home Run Picks
If any of these Dinger Tuesday picks win, you can get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 by using code “DINGER” — click here to subscribe.
@EricLindquist Ryan Mountcastle – BAL: +470
@JazzrazDFS Marcell Ozuna – ATL: +265
@nd_joyce Matt Olson – ATL: +360
Full analysis below!
@shanderbets Trea Turner – PHI: +600
@is_sirois Adley Rutschman – BAL: +560
Full analysis below!
@JoshEngleman Brent Rooker – OAK: +350
@Loughy_D Anthony Santander – BAL: +370
@gehrenbergdfs Yordan Alvarez – HOU: +350
Home Run Pick Analysis: Matt Olson & Adley Rutschman
@nd_joyce Matt Olson – ATL: +360
You don’t really need anyone to tell you to bet the guy who hit 54 homers a year ago for any Dinger Tuesday — but I’m going to tell you to bet Matt Olson to homer tonight at +360 anyway.
The house of cards that Kyle Gibson has built his 3.44 ERA and 1.20 WHIP on this season is about to come crumbling down at the hands of Olson and the Atlanta offense. Gibson has been playing with fire all season, pitching to an expected ERA of 4.82 — almost a full 1.5 runs worse than his actual ERA — and a .441 expected slugging percentage (.380 actual SLG%).
In other words, Gibson is getting by on luck … and maybe some type of weird voodoo magic or something.
Olson absolutely crushes right-handed pitching in his career, with a .274 ISO, which basically breaks the Fangraphs ISO rating chart — where anything nearing .250 is deemed “excellent.”
And, if you’re into small batter-pitcher samples, Olson has owned Gibson in his career to the tune of a .417 average (10-for-24) with 4 home runs and a 1.000 SLG.
It’s going to be SCORCHING HOT in St. Louis tonight, with temperatures over 95 degrees, and humidity nearing 45-50%, so the ball could be JUMPING at Busch Stadium tonight.
With regression looming, Olson’s home run odds should probably be closer to +300. Let’s rock.
@is_sirois Adley Rutschman – BAL: +560
There are two batters I love on the home run markets today at their current price, and Adley Rutschman is one of them. The Baltimore Orioles are at home against the Cleveland Guardians tonight, and it’s LHP Logan Allen on the bump for the visitors. Allen has allowed 1.7 xHR/9 and sports a brutal 5.50 xERA (7th percentile) through 75.2 IP.
Rutschman has been lighting up LHPs all season. He sports an incredible .418/.452/.663 slash line against them with 12 extra-base hits and six home runs in 98 at-bats. Meanwhile, Allen is allowing RHBs to slash .292/.365/.546. Rutschman is a switch hitter but will be batting righty here.
Although Rutschman is third on the Orioles in xHRs with just 13.5, I have faith in his ability to put another one over the fence, especially against a pitcher like Allen, and especially with the MLB weather report calling for 9.2 mph winds blowing out, 91-degree temperatures and 30% humidity.
I bought Rutschman to get multiple bases (-105 at DraftKings) and to go yard (+560 at FanDuel). You can probably find a better price for the home run prop elsewhere, but I’m committing to FanDuel for the Dinger Tuesday perks. Allen (1.7 xHR/9) and Baltimore’s LHP Cole Irvin (1.2 xHR/9) are two beatable pitchers for power bats.
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
