FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday: Home Run Picks & Strategy for May 14 (2024)

Starting Pitchers to Fade

by xHR allowed (source):

Eric Fedde (CWS vs. WSH): 7 xHR
9 xHR at Guaranteed Rate Field

JP Sears (OAK @ HOU): 6.9 xHR
9 xHR at Minute Maid Park

Reid Detmers (LAA vs. STL): 6.2 xHR
6 xHR at Angel Stadium

Quinn Priester (PIT @ MIL): 6.2 xHR
8 xHR at American Family Field

Ryan Weathers (MIA @ DET): 5.8 xHR
5 xHR at Kauffman Stadium

Stadiums to Target

by wind speed out (source):

Fenway Park (BOS vs. TB)
13 mph to CF, 72° F, 50% humidity

Camden Yards (BAL vs. TOR)
11.4 mph to RCF, 69° F, 56% humidity

Oracle Park (SF vs. LAD)
11.4 mph to CF, 59° F, 78% humidity

Angel Stadium (LAA vs. STL)
9.2 mph to CF, 66° F, 68% humidity

Globe Life Field (TEX vs. CLE)
5 mph to RCF, 85° F, 35% humidity

High-Scoring Games

by game total (source):

CLE @ TEX
o9-115

TB @ BOS
o9-106

CIN @ ARI
o8.5-114

NYY @ MIN
o8.5-108

OAK @ HOU
o8.5-106

@GEhrenbergDFS Elly De La Cruz – CIN: +440

@EricLindquist Kyle Tucker – HOU: +400

@JazzrazDFS Shea Langeliers – OAK: +390

@nd_joyce William Contreras – MIL: +430
Full analysis below!

@shanderbets Tyler Stephenson – CIN: +900

@is_sirois Jose Ramirez – CLE: +450
Full analysis below!

@EMacDFS Brent Rooker – OAK: +400

@Loughy_D CJ Abrams – WSH: +440

@nd_joyce William Contreras – MIL: +430

One of the guys consistently popping in my home run forecast has been William Contreras, and he’s got another great matchup tonight against Pirates starter Quinn Priester.

In his 71 career innings in the show, Priester has struggled with two things: 

1. Allowing hard contact (47.7% career hard-hit rate)
2. Giving up home runs (27.7% HR/FB rate … 18 HRs)

So, when we take a look at how William Contreras is hitting the ball this year, we can see that his Baseball Savant page is borderline pornographic and should probably come with a NSFW warning label. 

He’s 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, which means only three guys hit the ball harder more often than him — Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and … Cal Raleigh? And, his average exit velocity is right there with Ohtani as well.

Add in the fact that he absolutely CRUSHES the two-pitch mix Priester features to righties (sinker-slider), and we have ourselves a perfect storm for a Contreras home run in Miller Park (yes, I refuse to call it American Family Field).

@is_sirois Jose Ramirez – CLE: +450

The Cleveland Guardians will visit the Texas Rangers to take on rookie RHP Jack Leiter. He might be a good pitcher one day, but that’s not today. Leiter has coughed up two actual and 2.7 expected home runs in the show so far. Leiter’s bloated 12.91 ERA is bad, but it’s not much better than his similarly abysmal 7.61 xERA. His .318 xBA also isn’t good.

We’re backing Jose Ramirez, a switch hitter, against Leiter today. Ramirez is slashing a solid .242/.294/.455 this season, down from the .282/.356/.475 he slashed last year. Neither his .245 xBA (46th percentile) nor his .399 xSLG (50th) are that good. I’m hoping he can recover soon.

But while Ramirez is struggling a bit with contact, he isn’t struggling with power. He has mashed nine actual and 9.8 expected home runs, including 11 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Globe Life Field.

The handedness splits also point to value here. Leiter is allowing RHPs to slash .400/.455/.650 with three extra-base hits and a home run. While Ramirez is slashing only .212/.266/.407 against RHPs this year, those numbers include six home runs. He slashed .302/.382/.481 against them last year with 12 home runs as well.