Who doesn’t love a good home run bet? I know I do. Our Discord does, too. Fortunately for us, it’s Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel, which means we can score some bonus bets back even if our chosen slugger doesn’t deliver — let’s run through the promo and then get into our Dinger Tuesday picks. If any of these home run picks hit this Dinger Tuesday, you will be able to get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 — keep reading to find out how!
Here’s how Dinger Tuesday works: When you place a $25 wager on a player to hit a home run, you receive $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit in that game by ANY player (up to $25). Check out our Dinger Tuesday strategy guide for more information. If you haven’t signed up yet at FanDuel, you can even get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. Without further ado, let’s dive into our slate breakdown and expert picks for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday:
Home Run Picks & Strategy for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday | May 14
What Do You Need to Know for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday?
Starting Pitchers to Fade
by xHR allowed (source):
Eric Fedde (CWS vs. WSH): 7 xHR
9 xHR at Guaranteed Rate Field
JP Sears (OAK @ HOU): 6.9 xHR
9 xHR at Minute Maid Park
Reid Detmers (LAA vs. STL): 6.2 xHR
6 xHR at Angel Stadium
Quinn Priester (PIT @ MIL): 6.2 xHR
8 xHR at American Family Field
Ryan Weathers (MIA @ DET): 5.8 xHR
5 xHR at Kauffman Stadium
Stadiums to Target
by wind speed out (source):
Fenway Park (BOS vs. TB)
13 mph to CF, 72° F, 50% humidity
Camden Yards (BAL vs. TOR)
11.4 mph to RCF, 69° F, 56% humidity
Oracle Park (SF vs. LAD)
11.4 mph to CF, 59° F, 78% humidity
Angel Stadium (LAA vs. STL)
9.2 mph to CF, 66° F, 68% humidity
Globe Life Field (TEX vs. CLE)
5 mph to RCF, 85° F, 35% humidity
High-Scoring Games
by game total (source):
CLE @ TEX
o9-115
TB @ BOS
o9-106
CIN @ ARI
o8.5-114
NYY @ MIN
o8.5-108
OAK @ HOU
o8.5-106
OddsShopper’s Expert Home Run Picks
If any of these Dinger Tuesday picks win, you can get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 by using code “DINGER” — click here to subscribe.
@GEhrenbergDFS Elly De La Cruz – CIN: +440
@EricLindquist Kyle Tucker – HOU: +400
@JazzrazDFS Shea Langeliers – OAK: +390
@nd_joyce William Contreras – MIL: +430
Full analysis below!
@shanderbets Tyler Stephenson – CIN: +900
@is_sirois Jose Ramirez – CLE: +450
Full analysis below!
@EMacDFS Brent Rooker – OAK: +400
@Loughy_D CJ Abrams – WSH: +440
Home Run Pick Analysis: William Contreras & Jose Ramirez
@nd_joyce William Contreras – MIL: +430
One of the guys consistently popping in my home run forecast has been William Contreras, and he’s got another great matchup tonight against Pirates starter Quinn Priester.
In his 71 career innings in the show, Priester has struggled with two things:
- Allowing hard contact (47.7% career hard-hit rate)
- Giving up home runs (27.7% HR/FB rate … 18 HRs)
So, when we take a look at how William Contreras is hitting the ball this year, we can see that his Baseball Savant page is borderline pornographic and should probably come with a NSFW warning label.
He’s 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, which means only three guys hit the ball harder more often than him — Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto and … Cal Raleigh? And, his average exit velocity is right there with Ohtani as well.
Add in the fact that he absolutely CRUSHES the two-pitch mix Priester features to righties (sinker-slider), and we have ourselves a perfect storm for a Contreras home run in Miller Park (yes, I refuse to call it American Family Field).
@is_sirois Jose Ramirez – CLE: +450
The Cleveland Guardians will visit the Texas Rangers to take on rookie RHP Jack Leiter. He might be a good pitcher one day, but that’s not today. Leiter has coughed up two actual and 2.7 expected home runs in the show so far. Leiter’s bloated 12.91 ERA is bad, but it’s not much better than his similarly abysmal 7.61 xERA. His .318 xBA also isn’t good.
We’re backing Jose Ramirez, a switch hitter, against Leiter today. Ramirez is slashing a solid .242/.294/.455 this season, down from the .282/.356/.475 he slashed last year. Neither his .245 xBA (46th percentile) nor his .399 xSLG (50th) are that good. I’m hoping he can recover soon.
But while Ramirez is struggling a bit with contact, he isn’t struggling with power. He has mashed nine actual and 9.8 expected home runs, including 11 batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Globe Life Field.
The handedness splits also point to value here. Leiter is allowing RHPs to slash .400/.455/.650 with three extra-base hits and a home run. While Ramirez is slashing only .212/.266/.407 against RHPs this year, those numbers include six home runs. He slashed .302/.382/.481 against them last year with 12 home runs as well.
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
