Few sweats are more entertaining than home run bets. I love them, our Discord loves them — and, of course, our staff loves them. It happens to be Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel, so we can score some bonus bets back even if we can’t convert on a home run pick today. Let’s run through how the promotion works and then get into our Dinger Tuesday picks. If any of these home run picks hit, you will be able to get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 — keep reading to find out how!
Here’s how Dinger Tuesday works: When you place a $25 wager on a player to hit a home run, you receive $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit in that game by ANY player (up to $25). Check out our Dinger Tuesday strategy guide for more information. If you haven’t signed up yet at FanDuel, you can even get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. Without further ado, let’s dive into our slate breakdown and expert picks for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday:
Home Run Picks & Strategy for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday | May 21
What Do You Need to Know for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday?
Starting Pitchers to Fade
by xHR allowed (source):
Carlos Carrasco (CLE): 8.8 xHR
9 xHR at Progressive Field
Griffin Canning (LAA): 8.2 xHR
8 xHR at Minute Maid Park
Joe Musgrove (SD): 7.9 xHR
9 xHR at Great American Ball Park
Joe Ryan (MIN): 7.4 xHR
7 xHR at Nationals Park
Trevor Rogers (MIA): 6.3 xHR
5 xHR at loanDepot Park
Stadiums to Target
by wind speed out (source):
Wrigley Field (CHC vs. ATL)
22 mph to RCF, 83° F, 44% humidity
Busch Stadium (STL vs. BAL)
20 mph to RCF, 92° F, 42% humidity
Kauffman Stadium (KC vs. DET)
17 mph to CF, 80° F, 56% humidity
Minute Maid Park (HOU vs. LAA)
14 mph to CF, 85° F, 72% humidity
Dodger Stadium (LAD vs. ARI)
10 mph to RCF, 65° F, 70% humidity
High-Scoring Games
by game total (source):
ATL @ CHC
o10.5-124
SD @ CIN
o9.5+100
DET @ KC
o9-115
NYM @ CLE
o9-115
BAL @ STL
o9-110
OddsShopper’s Expert Home Run Picks
If any of these Dinger Tuesday picks win, you can get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 by using code “DINGER” — click here to subscribe.
@GEhrenbergDFS Julio Rodriguez – SEA: +600
@EricLindquist Kyle Schwarber – PHI: +265
@JazzrazDFS JT Realmuto – PHI: +330
@nd_joyce Michael Busch – CHC: +600
Full analysis below!
@shanderbets Carlos Correa – MIN: +900
@is_sirois Kyle Tucker – HOU: +350
Full analysis below!
@EMacDFS Anthony Santander – BAL: +310
@Loughy_D Ryan Jeffers – MIN: +330
Home Run Pick Analysis: William Contreras & Jose Ramirez
@nd_joyce Michael Busch – CHC: +600
Here’s a simple scientific formula for home runs:
Flyball Hitters + 22 mph winds out + Wrigley Field
We get that very situation tonight when Braves starter Charlie Morton faces the Cubs in an extremely gusty Wrigley. Lefty slugger Michael Busch will be lurking in the middle of the lineup.
Against right-handed pitching this season, Busch is hitting 44% of his balls in the air with 33.3% hard contact and 52.2% medium contact.
While the batting average is only .245, Busch possess immense power and ranks in 87th percentile in the league in Barrel Percentage, per Baseball Savant.
On a night like tonight when the wind is blowing out over 20 mph, any ball in the air struck with any kind of decent force has a great chance to leave the yard.
@is_sirois Kyle Tucker – HOU: +350
The Houston Astros get to host the Los Angeles Angels and RHP Griffin Canning in a favorable matchup for them tonight. It hasn’t been smooth sailing in Houston this year, but that’s no fault of Kyle Tucker, who is slashing .288/.421/.618 thus far. Tucker’s .299 xBA (92nd percentile) and .588 xSLG (96th percentile) are both elite.
Tucker will also benefit from facing a RHP. He is slashing .296/.433/.630 against opposite-handed pitchers this season with 16 extra-base hits, 10 of which went for home runs. Meanwhile, Canning has struggled against opposite-handed batters, allowing them to slash .294/.350/.505 with 12 extra-base hits and five home runs.
This one is in Minute Maid Park, and we should see 14 mph winds blowing out through center field tonight in Houston. The 85-degree weather and 72% humidity also stand to help carry the ball out of the park. Tucker is slashing .315/.466/.696 at his home stadium with 17 extra base hits and eight home runs. While he owns only 10.9 expected home runs, he has 15 expected home runs in Houston.
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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