We’re back for another set of home run picks for Dinger Tuesday at FanDuel. Last week saw us cash a +350 ticket for Kyle Tucker courtesy of yours truly, so can we run it back? The Discord is counting on us. I love this promotion because we can score some bonus bets back even if we can’t convert on a home run pick today. Let’s run through how the promotion works and then get into our Dinger Tuesday picks. If any of these home run picks hit, you will be able to get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 — keep reading to find out how!
Here’s how Dinger Tuesday works: When you place a $25 wager on a player to hit a home run, you receive $5 in bonus bets for every home run hit in that game by ANY player (up to $25). Check out our Dinger Tuesday strategy guide for more information. If you haven’t signed up yet at FanDuel, you can even get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet wins. Without further ado, let’s dive into our slate breakdown and expert picks for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday:
Home Run Picks & Strategy for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday | May 28
What Do You Need to Know for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday?
Starting Pitchers to Fade
by xHR allowed (source):
Luis Castillo (SEA): 9.2 xHR
9 xHR at T-Mobile Park
Dane Dunning (TEX): 8.8 xHR
9 xHR at Globe Life Field
Griffin Canning (LAA): 8.1 xHR
8 xHR at Angel Stadium
Jared Jones (PIT): 8.1 xHR
7 xHR at Comerica Park
Triston McKenzie (CLE): 7.9 xHR
8 xHR at Coors Field
Stadiums to Target
by wind speed out (source):
Oracle Park (SF vs. PH)
14 mph to CF, 59° F, 72% humidity
Truist Park (ATL vs. WSH)
10 mph to LCF, 83° F, 33% humidity
Coors Field (COL vs. CLE)
9 mph to LCF, 74° F, 28% humidity
T-Mobile Park (SEA vs. HOU)
8 mph to CF, 58° F, 69% humidity
Comerica Park (DET vs. PIT)
7.5 mph to LCF, 69° F, 57% humidity
High-Scoring Games
by game total (source):
CLE @ COL
o10.5-102
STL @ CIN
o9.5-110
NYY @ LAA
o9-104
ARI @ TEX
o8.5-122
WSH @ ATL
o8.5-108
OddsShopper’s Expert Home Run Picks
If any of these Dinger Tuesday picks win, you can get a week of our Premium Discord and +EV MLB betting tools for just $1 by using code “DINGER” — click here to subscribe.
@EricLindquist Rafael Devers – BOS: +400
@JazzrazDFS Ryan McMahon – COL: +390
@nd_joyce Will Benson – CIN: +600
@shanderbets Taylor Ward – LAA: +460
@is_sirois Elly De La Cruz – CIN: +520
Full analysis below!
@JoshEngleman Vinnie Pasquantino – KC: +520
@Loughy_D Juan Soto – NYY: +255
Full analysis below!
Home Run Pick Analysis: Juan Soto & Elly De La Cruz
@Loughy_D Juan Soto – NYY: +255
RHP Griffin Canning has already surrendered seven home runs to lefty hitters this season. He has been generating only 33 percent ground balls, has a 17.1 percent HR/FB rate and a .222 xISO, while striking lefty batters out at a paltry 15 percent clip across 132 batters faced.
Meanwhile, 12 of Soto’s 14 home runs have come against right-handed pitchers. He doesn’t strike out, boasts a .266 xISO vs. righties and will be hitting inside the league’s third most homer-friendly venue to left-handed bats tonight in Anaheim’s Angel Stadium.
@is_sirois Elly De La Cruz – CIN: +520
I would’ve taken Juan Soto as my pick for FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesday, but Loughy sniped me, so (a) you should tail him and (b) I’ll go for a bit more of a longshot than I usually do. Let’s back Elly De La Cruz to go yard (+520 at FanDuel) at Great American Ball Park against RHP Kyle Gibson and the St. Louis Cardinals.
Gibson, like Canning, has given up plenty of expected home runs with 7.5. Importantly, he has coughed up nine batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly stadium. His .278 xBA and .484 xSLG are both worse than Canning’s, too.
The problem is that Cincinnati doesn’t have a dominant bat to target like the New York Yankees, but Elly De La Cruz will have to do. He has mashed nine actual home runs (on only 5.9 expected — talk about luck!) with seven batted balls that would’ve cleared the fences in Cincinnati.
Aside from the ballpark, which leads the MLB in park factors for home runs, splits are the best argument for backing De La Cruz tonight. He is slashing .256/.348/.529 with 16 extra-base hits and eight home runs against RHPs this year. Gibson is allowing lefty bats to slash .241/.328/.466 with 14 extra-base hits and seven home runs.
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
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