A big Friday slate means a bunch of games from which to choose to build an MLB same-game parlay. At least, in theory that’s what it would mean. For some reason, today books have been really on the ball with setting their lines and odds, so very few games have multiple bets that are notably +EV. Fear not, though — we found one, so let’s get to it with a Caesars MLB same-game parlay bet for Giants-Rangers courtesy of OddsShopper’s Parlay Builder.
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Giants-Rangers MLB Parlay: Caesars SGP With Corey Seager
As always, we are going with value compared to the market, and as Loughy has explained to us, that often means leaning on unders. Given the markets and True Odds from OddsShopper, this is a long-term profitable parlay for Giants-Rangers.
Leg #1: Marcus Semien Under 0.5 RBIs
This Giants-Rangers game is one of the few tonight with multiple +EV player props, but unfortunately the two props are low-risk, low-payout plays. So our total odds are not going to be particularly high.
That said, the win rate on it is pushing 50% and the SGP on the whole is still positive, so we’re rolling forward with it by targeting two Rangers stars as they take on Logan Webb.
Webb’s overall numbers are solid, allowing a decent number of hits and striking out few but also limiting power. By limiting power I mean about as well as anyone in baseball: 0.3 home runs per nine and a .086 ISO against, to be exact (.200 is generally considered to be high).
Semien is slightly underperforming his usually powerful self, posting a slugging 37 points below last year’s and an ISO 24 points lower. He is driving runs in a decent amount — 35 RBIs total — but he has only plated one in 22 of 61 games this year (35%).
Plus, Semien is about as splitsy a splits guy as one can be: .660 OPS, .224 average against righties, 1.002 and .350 against lefties in comparable samples this year.
Given that Webb is one of the best among righties at pitching to contact, this is a good spot to fade Semien at the top of the Rangers order.
More importantly, the edge we get here is solid even with a side that is heavily juiced. The odds for Semien under 0.5 RBIs are an unappealing -244, but the True Odds still give us room at -261 thanks to a 72% expected win rate. That’s a 2.0% edge in terms of expected value long-term.
Leg #2: Corey Seager Under 0.5 RBIs
Seager is figuring things out after a slow start to the season. The extra-base hits are still at a minimum, mostly reserved to home runs (13 of his 18 extra-base hits have been homers), but Seager’s slugging is still creeping towards .500 and his ISO is finally above .200.
Or, should I say, Seager had been figuring it out. Twenty-one of his 30 RBIs this season came between May 3 and May 29, a span of 22 games. However, in the six games since, Seager only has one in 24 plate appearances despite hitting .364 in that time.
It doesn’t help that Semien hits right in front of him and poaches those RBIs at times. But we’re fading Semien, so why are we also fading Seager?
Well, for one, he has the same pitching matchup, though Seager hits righties much better than Semien does. We’re not going to get bogged down by batter vs. pitcher either since it’s just an 11-at-bat sample, though Seager does have zero career RBIs and just two hits against Webb.
The main reason we’re targeting Seager is the market — as you should know by now with our same-game parlays. This under also has a lot of juice at -184, but again, it’s not close to the True Odds of -200. It pushes this bet close to 3% +EV and adds a 67% expected win rate to the high one Semien offered us — and now our whole parlay has a 48% chance of hitting.
The +117 total odds only give us 4.57% positive expected value on Caesars, but that is not bad at all for a bet that has almost a 50% chance of winning.
MLB Parlay Today: +117 at Caesars Sportsbook
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