Looking for the best home run pick today? Kyle Schwarber is your man. He gets a favorable matchup for his elite power and surprisingly affordable odds, so we love Schwarber to go deep in tonight’s game. Let’s break down why this is the best HR pick today.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber hit 26 home runs last season against right-handed pitchers, and he’s consistently among the league leaders in barrel rate and hard-hit percentage, making him one of the most dangerous hitters when facing righties. His all-or-nothing power approach means he’s always a threat to hit a home run, even if his batting average isn’t always impressive (that said, he’s at .293 right now, which would be by far a career high).
Tonight, Schwarber will face Spencer Schwellenbach, and while Schwellenbach is talented, he has shown some vulnerability, and Schwarber should see pitches he can drive.
The game is at Truist Park in Atlanta, which is neutral for home runs but still favorable for left-handed pull hitters like Schwarber. While it isn’t a bandbox, the short porch in right-center is perfect for a lefty with Schwarber’s power.
The odds on Schwarber to hit a home run today are +350 at BetMGM, which gives an implied probability of only 22%. However, based on his power metrics and favorable matchup, his true chance to hit a home run is closer to 25%. The market is pricing this bet lower than it should be, and that’s exactly where sharp bettors find an edge.
Best Home Run Bet Today: Kyle Schwarber (+350, BetMGM)
