Looking for a top home run pick today? Christian Encarnacion-Strand of the Cincinnati Reds is the best home run pick for today’s MLB slate. With elite power, a favorable matchup and generous odds, Encarnacion-Strand is primed to go deep tonight. Let’s dive into why this is the best HR pick today.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Christian Encarnacion-Strand
In his limited MLB career, Encarnacion-Strand has already shown he can hit for distance, and his power metrics are impressive. He slugged 33 home runs in the minors in 2023, and in 2025 he’s shown flashes with a couple bombs. In particular, his hard-hit rate and exit velocity are both strong.
Tonight, Encarnacion-Strand faces lefty Bailey Falter, who allowed 14 home runs to right-handed hitters last year and continues to struggle with a high ERA and poor control this season. With his below-average strikeout rate, Falter is more likely to make mistakes that Encarnacion-Strand can capitalize on.
Tonight’s game is in Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. At +575 odds on BetMGM, this home run pick offers fantastic value. The implied probability at these odds is around 15%, but based on his power and favorable matchup, Encarnacion-Strand’s true home run probability is closer to 18% to 20%. This means the odds are undervaluing the likelihood of him going deep tonight, making this a great bet for anyone looking for positive expected value.
Best Home Run Bet Today: Christian Encarnacion-Strand (+575, BetMGM)
