Looking for the top home run pick today? Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros is your best bet. With elite power, a perfect pitching matchup and a favorable hitting environment, Alvarez is the best home run pick on the board for today’s MLB slate.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez
Alvarez is one of the most dangerous power hitters in baseball. He’s hit 31-plus home runs in each of the last four seasons and ranks among the league leaders in barrel rate and exit velocity. While he’s off to a slower start in 2025, don’t be fooled — his underlying metrics remain elite, and he’s due for a breakout game.
Alvarez’s track record shows that he goes on home run tears, and tonight could be the start of another one. He’s one of the few hitters in the league who can leave the yard to all fields, and he consistently punishes mistakes.
Alvarez faces Kyle Hendricks of the Los Angeles Angels, a right-handed pitcher who has historically struggled with the long ball. Hendricks gave up 21 home runs last season, and he’s not a strikeout artist, meaning Alvarez should see pitches in the zone.
Today’s game takes place at Daikin Park, a venue that’s historically favorable for home run hitters. While it’s especially friendly to righties with the Crawford Boxes, left-handed sluggers like Alvarez have no problem launching bombs to deep right-center.
There’s also no weather concern — Houston can close the roof if necessary, creating a controlled, hitter-friendly environment. Unlike outdoor parks impacted by cold air or wind, Alvarez gets a steady atmosphere to let his power shine.
You can find Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run at +340 odds at FanDuel, which implies about a 22.7% chance. But based on his power profile, the matchup, and his long-term HR rate, Alvarez’s true probability is closer to 27% to 30%.
That makes this a +EV play — exactly what sharp bettors look for. This bet pays more than it should, and over time these are the wagers that drive long-term profitability.
Best Home Run Bet Today: Yordan Alvarez (+340, FanDuel)
