If you’re searching for the best home run bets today, look no further than Kyle Schwarber‘s elite power. He has the right matchup and good ballpark conditions to be the top HR pick today. Let’s get into it.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Kyle Schwarber
Schwarber was around the 40-homer mark the last three years and already has six home runs in 15 games to start the 2025 season. With his elite barrel rate and pull-side power, Schwarber is always a threat to leave the yard — especially against right-handed pitching.
Schwarber faces Landen Roupp, a righty in just his second MLB season. Roupp lacks overpowering stuff and will likely need to throw strikes to compete — a dangerous game against Schwarber, who feasts on righties and punishes mistakes. This is a platoon advantage Schwarber has historically capitalized on.
Today’s game is at Citizens Bank Park, one of the most home-run-friendly stadiums in the league — especially for left-handed hitters. The park’s HR factor for lefties is second highest in MLB, with a short porch in right field tailor-made for Schwarber’s power stroke. Add mild spring weather with no wind concerns, and it’s a great environment for long balls.
You can get Kyle Schwarber to hit a home run at +350 on BetMGM, which implies about a 22% chance. But based on his matchup and power metrics, his true HR probability is closer to 27% to 30%. That makes this a strong +EV (positive expected value) wager — the type of bet where the payout outweighs the risk.
Best Home Run Pick Today: Kyle Schwarber (+350, BetMGM)
