If you’re hunting for the best home run pick today, you’re in the right place. After all, we NAILED our home run pick on Byron Buxton yesterday. Today we’re looking to one of baseball’s most hitter-friendly parks and a wildly exploitable pitcher on the mound for a sharp home run bet. One name stands out above the rest in this perfect storm of matchup and environment: Brandon Marsh.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Brandon Marsh
Let’s start with the setting. Citizens Bank Park already ranks among the top venues in the league for left-handed power, and today the weather only amplifies that. With strong winds blowing out and ideal hitting conditions, this could rival even Baltimore for launch potential.
But what makes Marsh especially appealing is the expected matchup with Antonio Senzatela, whose numbers are frankly nightmarish. In just 19 batted ball events during his most recent outing, he gave up a jaw-dropping .935 expected slugging and multiple batted balls over 101 mph off the bat. That’s not just bad — it’s historically bad.
Sure, it was just one game, and yes, it was in the heat and humidity of Steinbrenner Field in Florida. But bad is bad, and when you’re dealing with lefties like Marsh, Bryce Harper, Max Kepler and Kyle Schwarber all looming in this Phillies outfield, someone’s going yard. The key is finding value, and Marsh offers just that.
Everyone knows what Schwarber can do, especially against a struggling righty. The problem is the books know it too. Expect Schwarber to be juiced beyond playable levels once the markets open. Harper is likely in a similar spot. So where does that leave us?
Marsh, a power-speed lefty likely hitting in the back half of the lineup and often overlooked by the public but still drawing a dream matchup. Assuming he’s in the lineup, he’s going to be the sneaky play of the day. And the odds could reflect that.
If you’re placing a home run pick today, you don’t want to chase the obvious names with little value. You want the sharp home run bet. That means targeting favorable hitting weather, an exploitable pitcher and a player who won’t be the center of attention at the books.
Best Home Run Bet Today: Brandon Marsh (+600, FanDuel)
