If you’re looking to cash in on a smart home run bet, Corbin Carroll is shaping up to be the best home run pick today. He gets a dream matchup against Washington’s Jake Irvin — one of the more targetable right-handers on the slate — and everything points to Carroll as the sneaky slugger with value and upside.
This isn’t just a dart throw. It’s a process play, and the process says we’re buying Corbin Carroll home run tickets whenever he’s facing subpar right-handed pitching. That’s exactly what we have here.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Corbin Carroll
Anytime Carroll gets a look at a righty with control issues, low swing-and-miss, and a shaky pitch mix, you have to consider him in the home run pick conversation. Today, he gets exactly that with Jake Irvin on the mound.
There’s been this odd back-and-forth in the betting community about Irvin. Some believe he’s solid. Others, like us, have been raising red flags for over a year because the underlying numbers never really backed up his performance. Last year’s regression was inevitable — his 4.31 xERA and 4.41 ERA were already underwhelming, but the cracks widened dramatically down the stretch. In 2024, he’s picked up right where he left off, posting a 9.15 xERA in his first outing. That’s not just bad — it’s target-me-every-time-I-pitch bad.
Enter Carroll, one of the most explosive young lefty hitters in the game. If he gets even one mistake over the plate, it could leave the yard in a hurry. Books aren’t likely to price Carroll in the elite tier for home runs, which gives us an edge. Unlike the usual suspects who sit in the +250 to +300 range every night, Carroll may sneak in closer to +400 depending on the book and the lineup spot.
That’s where the home run bet value lies: upside, matchup and mispricing.
Best Home Run Bet Today: Corbin Carroll (+450, BetMGM)
