If you’re looking for the best home run pick on today’s MLB slate, there’s one name that stands out: Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners’ slugging catcher has everything working in his favor — recent form, matchup and odds — making him the top HR pick today and a great opportunity for bettors seeking a sharp edge. Let’s break down why Raleigh is the best home run pick on April 7.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Cal Raleigh
Raleigh is coming off a 30-homer season and has two home runs in the first week-plus of 2025. He homered just yesterday, so he’s seeing the ball well and squaring it up.
Raleigh faces a right-handed Houston starter which may turn into a bullpen game — a great setup for the switch-hitting catcher who hits with more power from the left side. Houston’s rotation is currently stretched thin, and their pitching staff has already shown early-season vulnerability to long balls.
This is the kind of matchup Raleigh can exploit, especially if he gets multiple plate appearances against mid-tier right-handers.
Yes, T-Mobile Park is generally pitcher-friendly — but that’s built into the +390 price. Raleigh hit 34 home runs last year playing half his games in Seattle, proving the park doesn’t cap his ceiling. Plus, the weather tonight is neutral, and Seattle can close the roof if necessary — no wind, no cold air concerns.
At +390, the implied probability of a home run is only 20.4%. But Raleigh’s current pace, matchup and power profile suggest his real HR chance is closer to 25%. That gives us positive expected value — a bet where the odds undervalue the likely outcome. Over time, these are the kinds of bets sharp bettors win with.
So if you’re scanning for a smart HR pick today, Raleigh is the play. He has the power, the form, the matchup and the value.
Best Home Run Bet Today: Cal Raleigh (+390, FanDuel)
