If you’re in the market for a sharp home run bet, you have to look past the usual suspects and dig into matchups that offer real value. That’s what we’re doing today by highlighting Logan O’Hoppe as our best home run pick. The young Angels catcher gets a high-leverage opportunity in a juicy reverse-splits matchup against Tampa Bay’s Shane Baz, and all the metrics are pointing toward power.
Boost your bankroll long-term with Portfolio EV. Discover more +EV bets with a FREE TRIAL — visit our Portfolio Betting page today!
Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Logan O’Hoppe
Let’s start with the matchup. Baz, while undeniably talented and capable of racking up strikeouts when healthy, has consistently shown reverse splits — meaning he gives up more damage to right-handed hitters. And it’s not just a little damage; Baz has a 53.8% hard-hit rate this year, which is among the worst in baseball when he’s not commanding his pitches.
That brings us to O’Hoppe.
The Angels backstop is red hot at the plate right now. And while we don’t normally go out of our way to chase “hot streaks,” some underlying data is simply too strong to ignore:
- .477 expected slugging
- 63.2% hard-hit rate
- 28-degree average launch angle
That is elite batted-ball data. Add in the fact that Tropicana Field plays like Yankee Stadium when it’s hot and humid — and it is today — and yoe have a perfect storm for power.
O’Hoppe is quietly crushing, and books haven’t fully caught up yet. That’s the exact profile you want in a value-driven home run pick today.
Mike Trout is also a fine option here, of course, but the books are never giving away value on Trout. They’ve priced in his name, his power, his career.
O’Hoppe, on the other hand, is regularly floating around +500 or better, despite all the indicators showing he’s ready to launch. That’s exactly what you want in a home run bet: A mispriced, high-upside player with the metrics to back it up.
Best Home Run Bet Today: Logan O’Hoppe (+550, BetMGM)
