Looking for the best home run pick today? Anthony Santander of the Toronto Blue Jays is the top HR pick today, offering excellent value for your home run prop bets. As one of the best home run picks on the slate, Santander has all the right factors working in his favor despite a slow start. Let’s break down why this home run pick stands out.
Boost your bankroll long-term with Portfolio EV. Discover more +EV bets with a FREE TRIAL — visit our Portfolio Betting page today!
Best MLB Home Run Bet Today: Anthony Santander
Santander is a switch-hitter who absolutely crushes right-handed pitching. Last season, 32 of his 44 home runs came off right-handed pitchers. This trend makes him a great choice when facing Red Sox righty Tanner Houck.
Santander’s home run prop is currently priced at +625 at BetMGM. This implies just a 14% chance of him hitting a home run, but based on his power and the matchup, his real chances are around 18% to 20%. That means the +625 line offers excellent value – it’s higher than the odds at other sportsbooks, making it a smart bet for tonight.
Although Santander hasn’t hit a home run yet this season, he’s been hitting the ball decently hard. With a 37.5% hard-hit rate and 3.1% barrel rate, his power metrics suggest that a long ball is coming soon. He’s due for some positive regression, meaning his first Blue Jays homer could be right around the corner — and tonight is a great opportunity.
Houck is a home-run-prone righty who’s already given up three homers in just 9.2 innings this season. Houck’s ERA is high, and he’s been allowing hard contact with 65.5% hard-hit balls. Santander can take advantage of these mistakes, especially in the shorter right field corner at Fenway Park.
Fenway Park is neutral for home runs but favors left-handed hitters when the ball is pulled to right field. The conditions tonight are cool, but with winds at 10 mph, the ball could carry out to right-center, making this a favorable scenario for Santander’s pull-heavy swing.
Best Home Run Bet Today: Anthony Santander (+625, BetMGM)
