The Seattle Mariners and Houston Astros are both in the AL West hunt, although they also both have some ground to make up on the Texas Rangers. The good news is that they’re both also in the thick of the AL Wild Card race, but they’ll have to keep winning to stay in it. Let’s dig into today’s Mariners-Astros odds as we make our predictions and pick the best MLB bet!
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Mariners-Astros MLB Betting Pick & Prediction
Mariners-Astros Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Mariners: +145 | Astros: -195
Mariners +1.5: -130 | Astros -1.5: +105
Over 9: +100 | Under 9: -120
Mariners-Astros Pick & Prediction
I’m giving the Astros a slight edge on the mound, but I’m not giving them a huge one. In their early Sunday afternoon battle, the Astros are expected to start RHP Hunter Brown, whose 4.17 ERA and 4.00 xERA are solid but aren’t spectacular. The Mariners are expected to start RHP Emerson Hancock, who, across two starts and 10 innings pitched, owns a 5.40 ERA but a 3.42 xERA. Although giving up five hits and five earned runs to the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday was a tough look, he had held the San Diego Padres to two hits and one earned run in his first start.
I give the Astros a slight edge on the mound because of the larger sample size we have on Brown, but I can’t give them the edge in the batter’s box. Houston ranks a solid seventh in xwOBA at .327, ever-so-slightly ahead of the 10th-ranked Mariners at .325. Further, the Mariners absolutely beat up Brown in his last start against them, as they played five earned runs with eight hits across just three innings pitched. While I suspect Brown will bounce back from that game, which came back in early July, it isn’t a sure thing. Still, he owns a 3.81 ERA across his last five outings, so the upward trend is there.
The market hasn’t landed on a clear price for the moneyline, at least as of Saturday afternoon. DraftKings currently lists Houston as a sizeable favorite at -195 (66.1%), but FanDuel lists Houston at only -148 (59.7%). The current market inefficiency means that there is a less than 0.5% hold across the two books, so while not an arbitrage betting spot, you know we’re getting a good price for whichever side of Mariners-Astros we land on. I agree with the number available at FanDuel: despite the limited sample we have on Hancock, the Mariners have a much better shot of winning outright on Sunday than the +145 (40.8%) via DraftKings Sportsbook implies.
But instead of backing the road dogs to win outright, I recommend playing them on the runline. The same market inefficiency is present on the spread markets, so we can buy Seattle at only -130 (56.5%) to keep Sunday’s game within a run. The Mariners have gone 36-24 (60%) on the runline when playing on the road this year and 24-9 (72.7%) when playing as a road underdog. Houston has gone only 27-33 (45%) when playing at home and 23-30 (43.4%) when playing as a home favorite. I doubt the -130 (56.5%) at DraftKings Sportsbook will remain on the board for much longer, but this is playable for at least a partial unit play down to -145 (59.2%).
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Best Mariners-Astros MLB Pick: Mariners +1.5 -130 at DraftKings
