The Philadelphia Phillies and Miami Marlins will square off in a Wild Card elimination game this evening. The Phillies took care of business in Game 1 by squishing the fish by a three-run margin. Philadelphia had plated three runs by the fourth inning and kept Miami scoreless until the top of the seventh inning. Let’s dive into today’s Marlins-Phillies odds as we make our predictions and identify the best bet for Game 2. OddsShopper’s model has identified a few other sharp bets as well.
Marlins-Phillies Game 2 Odds, Picks & Predictions | Wednesday, Oct. 4
Marlins-Phillies Game 2 Odds
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Marlins: +130 | Phillies: -155
Marlins +1.5: -170 | Phillies -1.5: +142
Over 8: -110 | Under 8: -110
Marlins-Phillies Pick & Prediction
The Miami Marlins are on the brink of elimination, but I don’t like their odds of forcing a Game 3. They’ll have to contend with an elite, red-hot Phillies offense that ranks seventh in expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) on the year at .327. Two of their star players have excelled in the metric and rank at or above the 85th percentile: Bryce Harper (.397) and Kyle Schwarber (.365). Meanwhile, the Marlins rank 17th in the metric at .317.
The Marlins will trot out LHP Braxton Garrett this evening, which bodes poorly for them. Garrett owns a respectable 3.66 ERA, but his 4.51 xERA is far less respectable. He is just a 34th-percentile pitcher in the metric. Although Garrett is a 97th-percentile pitcher in walk rate, his .272 xBA allowed is in the 13th percentile. The Phillies will have to knock Garrett around to plate runs, but if the regular season is any indication, that won’t be too difficult for them.
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Garrett took the hill against the Phillies twice during the regular season. He coughed up three earned runs in a five-inning performance in July. He then coughed up another three earned runs in another five-inning performance back in August. The Phillies tallied three 12 hits and two walks, good for a 1.4 WHIP — far above Garret’s regular-season average (1.2). While some may expect regression to the mean, I believe those numbers point to a high-scoring start to Wednesday’s game.
Let’s buy the Phillies to record over 2.5 runs in the first five innings. The Phillies are averaging 2.8 runs per first five this season, but that number ticks up to 2.9 when they play in Philadelphia. They cashed this over in both of their regular-season games against Garrett as well. Garrett had a nice September, but he coughed up four earned runs in four innings in his most recent appearance. Fade him and trust the Phillies to start off hot tonight.
Marlins-Phillies Game 2 Pick: Philadelphia F5 Over 2.5 +120 at DraftKings
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