MLB awards season is in full chaos mode, and a surprising number of races are far from settled. Truthfully, only two MLB awards odds have become long enough that we can lock them in (maybe three). As such, there may be a lot of value in betting some underdogs with a little over a month left in the MLB season. Let’s get into those odds and see where some leverage can be found. And don’t forget that you can go to OddsShopper’s futures board to ensure you’re getting the best value on any MLB MVP, Cy Young or Rookie of the Year odds. Let’s get into the 2023 MLB awards odds and picks — for the sake of this article, we are focusing on DraftKings Sportsbook.
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MLB Awards Odds Update: Think These Races Are Over?
American League MVP
We covered last week how the UCL injury to Shohei Ohtani is virtually irrelevant to his AL MVP odds at this point. This race is still off the board at most sportsbooks since Ohtani has this sewn up.
National League MVP
While not as locked in as Ohtani’s stranglehold, Ronald Acuna to win MVP was still pretty secure at -330 at the All-Star Break. Well, with the hard-charging Mookie Betts jumping Acuna in baseball-reference WAR (bWAR), Acuna is far from the guarantee he once seemed to be. He is still favored but now only at -180, while Betts is very much still in it at +210.
The Braves remain the standard bearers in MLB, which will clearly help Acuna as long as they hold onto their five-game lead over the Dodgers for top spot in the National League. Some may point to Acuna’s MVP-contending teammate Matt Olson (+5500) as a reason to downgrade Acuna, but Betts’ teammate Freddie Freeman is only +650, so that argument seems asinine.
This will entirely come down to the last month of the season. Truth be told, NL MVP could enter tossup territory in the next few weeks, which seemed impossible at the beginning of August.
American League Rookie of the Year
This award has swung wildly since the All-Star Break. At that time, Texas’ Josh Jung was slightly favored, followed by Masataka Yoshida and Gunnar Henderson, in that order. But Jung cooled off and suffered an injury, while Henderson has gone on to be probably the best all-around player on the top team in the American League, one that is pushing the Braves for best record in all of baseball. Henderson has now nearly doubled Jung’s bWAR, and Jung’s odds have dipped to +4500 (fifth in AL).
Henderson at -700 on DraftKings is entering lock territory. Yoshida has fallen back to third at +1200, surpassed by his teammate Triston Casas (+800), and Guardians pitcher Tanner Bibee has slipped into some outside discussion at +2000.
The only real shot at Henderson losing this award may be Jung returning sooner than expected and having an elite end of the season, combined with a Henderson drop-off. That seems extremely unlikely — though Jung was the AL leader in home runs, RBIs, runs, extra-base hits and total bases prior to his injury.
National League Rookie of the Year
With Elly De La Cruz cooling off — to the point that his teammate Matt McLain is now the clear top rookie on the Reds — Carroll is a lock to win now. He has also come back to earth a bit, but his DraftKings odds are -3500, while the field to win is +1100. Ohtani to win AL MVP came off the board at -10000, and Carroll is not far behind that at this point.
American League Cy Young
The two Cy Young awards are the most open of the races, as both have three genuine candidates to win.
After years of top-5 finishes, Gerrit Cole may finally be pushing towards his first-place finish. He was third in the odds on DraftKings at the All-Star Break, but a cold streak from Framber Valdez (a cold streak that featured a no-hitter) dropped him to +4000 and allowed Cole to sneak up to first at -250. Kevin Gausman was second at the break at +350, and he has slipped slightly to +550 (third). Luis Castillo has been the big leaper, now sitting in second at +450 when he was +2500 at the break. This leap is quite odd given these are Castillo’s numbers since the All-Star game — numbers that are good but hardly constitute such a dramatic lowering of odds:
Gausman’s numbers are considerably more impressive, if only because of his league-leading strikeout totals. However, Castillo’s Mariners are on a crazy hot streak, and he is the driving force of the pitching staff, so it is somewhat understandable.
That said, Cole is running away with this in the advanced metrics. His 5.2 bWAR is a full win better than any pitcher in the AL, and neither Gausman nor Castillo are in the top 10. Second place in that category is Sonny Gray (4.2), followed by Ohtani, who will not pitch again this year. Cole also leads the league in innings, ERA, ERA+ and a host of other advanced metrics. He has certainly been the best pitcher in the league; the question is whether the Yankees’ miserable second half will negatively impact his case for voters.
National League Cy Young
National League is a bit more up in the air than the American League, with odds-on favorite Zac Gallen only at -105, barely leading Spencer Strider (+230) and Blake Snell (+300). Gallen has a decent lead in bWAR for pitchers (4.2), 0.5 ahead of Snell and 0.8 clear of Strider. Both Strider and Snell are clearly outpacing Gallen in the strikeout department — Strider leads all pitchers with 13.9 per nine innings, and Snell is up there at 11.7 — and Gallen is the only one of the three not leading in any one traditional stat category. However, the advanced metrics love Gallen (though Snell is best of the three in ERA+).
Strider’s strikeouts and team performance are so high end that they will keep him in the race for the rest of the year, though his ERA is a little high for a Cy Young winner. Snell, meanwhile, is as good as it gets in every area but one: Walks. And those walks have put his WHIP at 1.268 (which is far from elite) and has his fielding-independent pitching (FIP) up to a good-not-great 3.78. Gallen has no such weaknesses, even if he is not top of the class in any one category.
Arizona is clinging to the third Wild Card spot by half a game, which may play a big part in Gallen hanging onto the No. 1 spot. But given how tight this award race is from a statistical standpoint, Strider at +230 may be a high-value play with a month and change left in the season.
