Happy Friday! We’ve almost made it to the weekend, and what better way to celebrate than to do get some action down on the MLB tonight? Let’s dive into our MLB expert picks and predictions for today’s baseball action. Check out our expert picks page for more bets — or use our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, August 9
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, August 9
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or sign up for your favorite experts for all their picks!
@nd_joyce – Player Prop – Rafael Devers O/U 1.5 TB: The Boston Red Sox return home tonight, and LHB Rafael Devers loves him some home cookin’ — especially against RHPs.
Devers is slashing .322/.403/.639 at home this season, and against RHPs? Well, it’s hard to do better than that, but when playing at home against RHPs, he is hitting .331 and slugging .702 with a pornographic .372 ISO. I mean, that’s legitimately an X-rated number that Ron Jeremy would blush at.
Blanco has given up 22 extra-base hits to LHBs this season and is allowing a .399 slugging percentage to lefties as well.
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As noted previously, Devers is particularly dangerous at Fenway Park. His ability to pull the ball down the right-field line to the short porch or drive it to left plays perfectly into tonight’s conditions, where there’s likely to be a nearly 20 mph wind blowing out toward the Green Monster.
Devers’ ability to hit the ball the other way and bang would-be flyball outs off the wall in left that turn into doubles gives us added avenues to cash this bet.
At -105 odds, you’re getting solid value for a player who has a strong chance to surpass 1.5 total bases, especially against a pitcher like Blanco under such favorable conditions.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at ESPNBET
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Gunnar Henderson O/U 1.5 TB: The Baltimore Orioles are on the road against RHP Zack Littell and the sinking Tampa Bay Rays. Henderson has been electric against RHBs this year, slashing .300/.375/.585 with 23 home runs. That number improves to .414/.514/.793 with three home runs against the Rays, and, when he plays them in the Trop, it clocks in at .389/.450/.833 with two home runs.
Littell, meanwhile, has not been so electric. The 28-year-old RHP is allowing LHBs to slash .279/.317/.462 with 27 extra-base hits and nine home runs. On the year, Littell owns a .268 xBA (21st percentile) and 4.5% walk rate (96th), both of which are extremely favorable for our purposes.
Littell and Henderson have faced off 11 times. Henderson has one walk, five hits, three extra-base hit and two home runs though that sample.
But this bet isn’t just about the Littell-Henderson matchup. Once Littell exits, Henderson gets a bullpen that he can cook. The Rays’ bullpen ranks a league-average 15th in hits allowed (373) but is 28th in home runs allowed (59). In 37 career plate appearances against active Tampa pitchers, Henderson is slashing .324/.378/.647.
The books are listing Henderson’s odds of recording multiple bases in the -105 to -115 range, which is a bit too friendly. Let’s lock in the -105 at BetMGM. His home run odds of +400 at Fanatics are a bit too generous, too. I’m splitting 1.5 units between the two markets.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases -105 at BetMGM
