Finally. After the All-Star Break, which felt like a decade, the MLB is back with an action-packed Friday slate. Our exeprts are here to dish out their picks, including one play for Detroit’s Riley Greene. Let’s dive into our MLB expert picks and predictions for today’s baseball action. Check out our expert picks page for more bets — or use our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, July 19
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, July 19
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@nd_joyce – Player Prop Riley Greene O/U 1.5 H/R/RBI: We’ve had a lot of success targeting hitters’ player props against pitchers who have higher expected ERAs than actual ERAs, and we’re doing so again tonight with Riley Greene’s over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs (H/R/RBI) prop against Toronto’s Chris Bassitt.
Greene has a ton of things pointing in his favor tonight outside of the regression for Bassitt, and it starts with his ridiculous platoon splits.
Greene is sporting an absurd 158 wRC+ against right-handed pitching, as well as a .293 average, .395 OBP and .525 SLG. What’s more is that he’s racked up 32 extra-base hits against righties (13 homers, 16 doubles and three triples), and when we’re trying to pick off a 1.5 H/R/RBI line, extra-base hits are CRUCIAL, especially in the middle of that lineup.
Against Bassitt’s pitch mix, Greene is likely to see mostly sinkers and cutters, with a few curveballs mixed in as well. The Tigers lefty hits the sinker-cutter combo pretty well, having a hard-hit rate of 45.7% and 50%, respectively on those pitches. So he matches up well against the pitches Bassitt throws 41% and 20% of the time.
Greene will have the benefit of the red-hot Colt Keith ahead of him, who will hopefully be in scoring position for a couple of Greene’s at-bats. With Greene’s power, he can cash this ticket with one swing of the bat, and -125 isn’t a bad line to target considering the matchup.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Riley Greene Over 1.5 H/R/RBI -125 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Jonathan India O/U 1.5 TB: This is by far my favorite MLB player prop on the board today. The Cincinnati Reds are visiting the Washington Nationals tonight, and it’s washed-up LHP Patrick Corbin on the bump for them today. Corbin owns a 6.29 xERA (1st percentile), .316 xBA (1st) and 7.8% walk rate (52nd), making him a perfect fade for batter props. He is also coughing up a .312/.361/.532 slash line to RHBs.
Enter Jonathan India. India bats righty but is killing southpaws to the tune of a .306/.412/.459 slash line this year. Cincinnati’s lead-off hitter also owns a .290 xBA (91st) and .424 xSLG (58th). Although he walks a bit more than we’d like with his 12.6% walk rate (94th), I think he should be multiple hits or an extra-base hit in this spot.
India and Corbin have met before. Across the 10 at-bat (and 11 plate appearance) sample, India has four hits, including one home run, and just one walk, good for a slash line of .400/.455/.700. That’s a miniscule sample size, but it’s a positive sign that India can generate offense with his bat.
Once Corbin exits, it’s up to a Washington bullpen that has allowed the 10th-most hits (322) to stop India and the Cincinnati Reds. This game has a total of nine, so the books expect plenty of offense, and getting India at even odds to surpass the 1.5 total base mark is far too good to pass up. Lock this one in before the value disappears.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Jonathan India Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at Hard Rock
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