With a full slate of MLB action getting underway at 6 p.m. ET or later today, our experts have cooked up several bets for this evening’s action, and there’s a ton of value on the card, too. Let’s dive into our MLB expert picks and predictions for today’s baseball action. Check out our expert picks page for more bets — or use our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, June 28
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, June 28
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for every pick!
@nd_joyce – Player Prop – Ian Happ O/U 1.5 H/R/RBI: Finding plus-money value on any bet against a pitcher as bad as Colin Rea is basically a gift from the betting gods, and that’s exactly what we’ve got today in the form of Ian Happ’s over 1.5 hits, runs and RBIs line on DraftKings.
Happ has a slew of things going in his favor tonight: (a) Facing Rea and his 5.34 expected ERA, (b) Rea vs. LHPs: .259 AVG, .489 SLG, 9 HRs, 26 runs allowed, (c) Happ vs. RHPs: 7 HRs, 29 RBIs, 30 runs scored and (d) hitting in the No. 8 park in terms of park factor (Wrigley Field No. 21).
When looking at what pitches Happ is most likely to see from Rea tonight, it’ll be a four-pitch mix comprised mainly of cutters, sinkers, four-seamers and an occasional sweeper.
Dialing into Baseball Savant’s Statcast data, we can see Happ has handled the three most-used pitches from Rea well this season (cutter/sinker/four-seamer).
Especially the cutter, which he’s slugging an absolutely pornographic .722 on. If Rea isn’t sharp with one of those cutters, Happ is liable to hit one of them a mile.
With his 12.4% barrel rate this season, Happ is definitely capable of squaring up a lot of what Rea brings in, with extra bases a likely outcome. He should also have plenty of chances to drive in runs with guys like Cody Bellinger and Seiya Suzuki hitting ahead of him in the lineup tonight.
Hopefully this isn’t another Breaking Bad “he can’t keep getting away with it GIF” night for us with Colin Rea. I’m loving the matchup and the odds for Happ tonight. And if you’re feeling extra spicy, you can also check out an Ian Happ home run for +650 at BetRivers.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Ian Happ Over 1.5 H/R/RBIs +100 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Riley Greene O/U 1.5 TB: As long as RHP Zach Plesac remains in the MLB, we’re going to be fading him against opposite-handed batters. Riley Greene gets that matchup today, and he should cook against Plesac and the Angels bullpen.
Plesac has only 9.1 IP this season, but LHBs are slashing .364/.391/.955 against him through that stretch with five extra-base hits, four of which went for home runs. Sure, he had a tricky matchup against Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman last time out, but he is now giving up 4.4 xHR/9.
Plesac only made five appearances last year, so the last time he saw extended action in The Show was 2022. He allowed LHBs to slash .288/.356/.469 that year with 25 extra-base hits and 11 home runs. Those kinds of numbers will get you demoted to the minors, which, well, they did for him. He’s only back because the Angels are awful.
Greene is also doing his part. He owns a nice .286/.390/.532 slash line versus RHPs with 28 extra-base hits and 12 home runs. His .249 xBA (49th percentile) isn’t great, but his .493 xSLG (87th) absolutely is, and while we probably need him to get an extra-base hit to cash this prop, a pair of singles isn’t out of the question, either.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at BetMGM
@Loughy_D – Player Prop – Rafael Devers O/U 1.5 TB: This is as good a spot as you’re going to get for Rafael Devers, facing a righty in Randy Vasquez who has been downright terrible against left-handed bats.
Across 86 batters faced, Vasquez is serving up a .533 wOBA (.499 xwOBA), .244 ISO (.245 xISO) and 3.0 HR/9 with a dismal 9.3 K%.
Meanwhile, you could count on one hand that number of hitters who have tagged righties for as much power as Devers this season (.326 ISO). This was sitting at +390 earlier, but I still like it at +370 on Caesars.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Rafael Devers To Hit a Home Run +370 at Caesars
OddsShopper’s MLB Tools & Tips
Looking for more 2024 MLB predictions? OddsShopper’s experts are here to break down this MLB season — make sure to check out the rest of our MLB articles. Still need more picks? Subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for our market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
