Let’s gooo — yesterday’s article swept the board as we went 3-0 on expert picks. Ben Rasa cashed BOS -9, Loughy cashed Ben Sheppard under 0.5 3-pointers and Isaiah Sirois cashed Myles Turner under 23.5 points and rebounds. We’re turning to baseball for tonight’s action — can our experts stay hot despite the new challenge? Let’s dive into our MLB expert picks and predictions for today’s baseball action. Check out our expert picks page for more bets — or use our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, May 24
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, May 24
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or subscribe to OddsShopper Premium for every pick!
@nd_joyce – Player Prop – MacKenzie Gore O/U 6.5 Strikeouts: If I told you there’s a left-handed pitcher with a strikeout rate approaching the 30% mark facing a team that strikes out nearly 30% (the most in MLB) over the last 28 days against left-handed pitching … and his strikeout prop was +120, you’d think I was lying. But I’m not!
We’re getting strong plus-money value on a pitcher in a great matchup because his name is MacKenzie Gore and not Tyler Glasnow, Cole Ragans or Tarik Skubal.
Gore ranks in the 71st percentile in whiff rate and the 77th percentile in strikeout rate in baseball this season, which has him sitting with a 10.5 strikeout-per-nine-inning rate — 11th-best in baseball.
Given the matchup against the Mariners, who have a proclivity for swinging-and-missing against lefties, the plus-money value seems too good to pass on here.
MLB Expert Pick Today: MacKenzie Gore Over 6.5 Strikeouts +120 at DraftKings
@Loughy_D – TEX @ MIN – Moneyline: We’re getting good plus money on the Texas Rangers tonight in a spot where they’ll face an extreme flyball righty in Bailey Ober with winds blowing 15 mph out to center at Target Field.
Jose Urena, while the furthest thing from an ace, keeps the ball on the ground, generates a lot of weak contact and has surrendered very little power on the season.
This matchup feels a lot more even than the Twins being -165 ML favorites, especially considering neither team has gotten stellar results from their bullpen.
MLB Expert Pick Today: TEX @ MIN – Texas Rangers ML +140 at DraftKings
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Christopher Morel O/U 1.5 TB: The St. Louis Cardinals continue to start RHP Miles Mikolas, so we continue to bet against him whenever he takes the mound. Mikolas is having a brutal season. Opposing batsmen are slashing .294/.332/.505 with 27 extra-base hits and nine home runs. Same-handed batters like Morel are slashing .294/.325/.495.
The problems for Mikolas become more obvious when we dig into power and expected stats. Mikolas is allowing a .493 xSLG, second-worst among today’s slate of starting pitchers, to go with 9.6 expected home runs, second-most in the entire MLB this year.
While only nine of his batted balls allowed would’ve cleared the fences at Busch Stadium, Morel and the Cubs will benefit from favorable conditions tonight. The MLB weather report calls for roughly 10 mph winds blowing out through left-center field, potentially giving righty bats like Morel a slight boost.
We’re also locking in on Morel because of his own impressive resume. He leads the Cubs in both actual (9) and expected (9.6) home runs this season. His .271 xBA (74th percentile) and .517 xSLG (90th) are impressive, far more so than his actual slash line (.205/.301/.392), which suggests he has been unlucky. Let’s back him for some better luck in tonight’s contest.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Christopher Morel Over 1.5 Total Bases +105 at FanDuel
