Yesterday’s MLB expert picks column went a disappointing 1-2, but hat tip to Eytan Shander for cashing in on the Detroit Tigers’ moneyline. Today, we’ve got Nathan Joyce with a plus-money ladder prop, Isaiah Sirois coming back swinging with another total bases bet and Loughy with a run line wager for Nationals-Guardians. Can we bounce back? I think so! Let’s dive into our MLB expert picks and predictions for today’s baseball action.
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MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, May 31
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, May 31
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@nd_joyce – Player Prop – Jose Soriano O/U 5.5 Strikeouts: Taking the traditional strikeout prop for Jose Soriano tonight at the juiced price the books are offering seems like a fool’s errand. So, we’re going to flip the script on the books tonight and make a mini strikeout ladder given the great matchup against the Seattle Mariners.
Seattle whiffs more than any team in baseball (28.3%), but when you dial that in against right-handed pitchers, it jumps to almost 30%.
Soriano is coming off setting his career-high strikeout mark (8) and has found a mix of pitches that is getting whiffs at a big rate. His knuckle curve (38.8% whiff rate) and splitter (34.1% whiff rate) are his best put away pitches right now, and he’s been utilizing them well.
I did a little digging on how the Mariners hitters have fared against curveballs this season, and all seven of their qualified hitters have a whiff rate of 30% or more against that pitch this season.
In a matchup where Soriano is going to be featuring his knuckle curve at least 30% of the time, this feels like a spot he could rack up seven, eight or even nine strikeouts, and we want to get in on those juicy plus-money odds.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Jose Soriano 7+ Strikeouts +144 & 8+ +285 at FanDuel
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Jose Ramirez O/U 1.5 TB: What the Washington Nationals are doing to LHP Patrick Corbin is a crime. The two-time All-Star deserves better than getting trotted out every five games just to get dismantled by opposing offenses. It’s brutal to watch. Thumbing through the best and worst performers by expected metrics reveals just how bad things have gotten for him:
Corbin sports an embarrassing 6.37 xERA (3rd percentile) and is allowing batters to record a .322 xBA.
Those expected metrics aren’t far off his actual performance, either — he sports a nasty 6.12 ERA while batsmen are slashing .322/.376/.547 against him.
Enter Jose Ramirez. Ramirez is 0-for-6 against Corbin across their lengthy careers, but that’s a two-game sample, one of which took place in 2017. Ramirez is slashing .323/.384/.631 against southpaws this year with 10 extra-base hits and five home runs.
Unlike Corbin, Ramirez at least owns average expected stats. His .246 xBA (43rd percentile) and .436 xSLG (63rd) aren’t anything to write home about, but he ranks tied with Gunnar Henderson for fourth in expected home runs (16.6) this season. A whopping 17 of his batted balls would’ve cleared the fences of Progressive Field.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Total Bases +100 at Fanatics
@Loughy_D – Run Line – WSH @ CLE: The Guardians have mauled left-handed pitching this season, ranking top four in wOBA, ISO and wRC+. Meanwhile, Patrick Corbin owns a dismal 6.36 xERA and a 13 percent K-rate through 11 starts.
Tanner Bibee is having an up-and-down season, but he’s still markedly better than Corbin, and this Guardians offense also draws a far better matchup. And while Washington’s bullpen has been playing above the league average, Cleveland boasts arguably the best collection of relievers in baseball right now.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Cleveland Guardians -1.5 -105 at DraftKings
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