Although the start of the Olympics is exciting — especially for the sports betting opportunities on basketball — let’s not allow that to distract us from the MLB. Today’s slate offers up plenty of action (and high-value spots for bettors to exploit). Let’s dive into our MLB expert picks and predictions for today’s baseball action. Check out our expert picks page for more bets — or use our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
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MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Saturday, July 27
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Saturday, July 27
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@nd_joyce – Player Prop C.J. Abrams O/U 1.5 TB: There’s no better sight for CJ Abrams than Kyle Gibson on the mound today in St. Louis. And for us, it’s really tasty when we’re getting +115 odds on his 1.5 total bases prop at BetMGM, which you can bump up to +152 with the 33% boost they’re offering today.
Abrams is in a great spot here. Gibson predominantly throws sinkers, cutters, 4-seamers and changeups to lefty hitters. So, let’s take a quick look at how Abrams has performed against those pitches this season:
- Sinkers: 10 Run Value, .450 AVG, .650 SLG, 36.7 Hard-Hit%
- Cutters: 5 Run Value, .368 AVG, .895 SLG, 64.7 Hard-Hit %
- 4-Seamers: 10 Run Value, .292 AVG, .604 SLG, 42.5 Hard-Hit%
- Changeups: 2 Run Value, .217 AVG, .348 SLG, 42.1 Hard-Hit%
It’s safe to say that Abrams is more than capable of handling whatever pitch Gibson decides to throw him. In a very limited sample size, Abrams is 4-for-8 with one double against Gibson, so he’s already shown the ability to have success in the past.
I never put all my eggs in the small-sample basket, but what I’m more prone to do is place them in Baseball Savant’s expected statistics basket. That’s where Gibson ranks 17th among all pitchers in baseball in terms of greatest difference in expected ERA (4.81) and actual ERA (3.99). Meaning, there is some regression coming for the dusty right-hander in St. Louis.
I feel quite confident that the Nats’ superstar will get it done for us tonight. I wouldn’t even mind a sprinkle on his home run prop at +630 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: CJ Abrams Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at BetMGM
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@is_sirois – Player Prop – Luis Arraez O/U 1.5 TB: Few batters in baseball are better for us on the total base market than base-hit merchant Luis Arraez. He gives us two ways to cash this prop — an extra-base hit or multiple base hits, both of which are well within his wheelhouse.
Arraez’s .321 xBA (99th percentile) and .411 xSLG (50th) — along with his 3.8% walk rate (5th) and 5.4 strikeout rate (100th) — all suggest he’ll put the ball in play multiple times per game. The matchup against RHP Dean Kremer is just icing on the cake for us.
Kremer isn’t the best pitcher for batter props, as he sports a .259 xBA (27th) and 9.5% walk rate (31st), but he makes up for it when we look at his splits. LHBs are slashing .221/.318/.481 against him with 14 extra-base hits. Arraez is slashing .322/.350/.405 against RHPs like Kremer to boot.
We’re getting Arraez at +110 on BetMGM to tally multiple bases, which is a nice value for this prop. Arraez is averaging 1.7 total bases per game this season. That improves to two when he plays on the road. Look for him to get the job done against Kremer or Baltimore’s bullpen.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at BetMGM
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