The MLB is offering up a loaded slate this evening, and the action will roar on from the early afternoon until late at night — which creates plenty of opportunities for degenerates like us to get some action down! Let’s dive into our MLB expert picks and predictions for today’s baseball action. Check out our expert picks page for more bets — or use our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Wednesday, August 14
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Wednesday, August 14
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or sign up for your favorite experts to get all their picks!
@is_sirois – Player Prop – Nolan Schanuel O/U 1.5 TB: The Los Angeles Angels will host the Toronto Blue Jays and RHP Jose Berrios this evening, and there is no better batter to target in this spot than leadoff man Nolan Schanuel. Let’s back him for multiple bases.
Although Schanuel isn’t known as a power hitter, that’s largely due to his struggles against fast pitches. Schanuel’s 65.4 mph bat speed (2nd percentile) and -8 run value versus four-seam fastballs are, to put it bluntly, awful.
However, Schanuel shines against breaking and offspeed pitches. He sports a .249 xBA and a .411 xSLG versus breaking balls, which Berrios has thrown 30% of the time the last two seasons. Schanuel also owns a .320 xBA and .349 xSLG versus offspeed pitches, the bulk of Berrios’ aresenal.
The splits also favor some extra power for Schanuel today. He is slashing .258/.352/.376 with nine home runs versus RHPs. Berrios is allowing LHBs to slash .216/.302/.408 with 23 extra-base hits and 15 home runs.
Further, once Berrios exits, Schanuel gets a bullpen that ranks 30th in home runs allowed (71) and 19th in hits (398). The odds for Schanuel to get multiple bags — +160 at Unibet and +155 at DraftKings — are just too long.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 Total Bases +155 at DraftKings
@nd_joyce – Player Prop – Elly De La Cruz O/U 1.5 TB: The big red hammer is about to drop on Cardinals starter Kyle Gibson tonight, and we’ll be there to cash in with an Elly De La Cruz over 1.5 total bases prop at odds of +110.
This Cardinals-Reds game projects for 9.5 runs — tied for the highest total on the evening slate — so we should expect some fireworks in Great American Ball Park.
Gibson is one of the pitchers I’ve loved targeting throughout the season due to him drastically outperforming his expected ERA. By hook, but mostly by crook, he sports a sub-4.00 ERA this year, while his expected ERA is 4.85. For a guy who has markedly worse splits against lefties — .267/.350/.471 slash line — we’re going to get involved.
Elly is only 1-for-6 off Gibson in his short career, but the run values and hard-hit rates on the pitches Gibson throws most to left-handed hitters gives me big-time optimism tonight.
The gas can starter for the Cardinals will throw mostly sinkers, cutters, four-seamers and will drop the occasional changeup in on lefties. Against those pitches, Elly positive run values on all of them, while having hard-hit rates of 60%, 54.3%, 51.6% and 27.5%, respectively.
With the speed De La Cruz possesses, he’s a threat to stretch any would-be single into extra bases and can cash us out with relative ease. Give me the most dynamic guy on the diamond in one of the best hitting environments in all of baseball to get us two bags tonight for +110.
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MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Elly De La Cruz Over 1.5 Total Bases +110 at BetMGM
