The MLB All-Star Break is upon us, and that means we’re in store for another exciting edition of the Home Run Derby. Eight of baseball’s best sluggers will square off against each other, tournament-style, to see who can hit the most balls over the fence. Our experts are here to give you their favorite picks and bets for this year’s Home Run Derby, including plays for Mookie Betts and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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Best MLB Home Run Derby Bets & Picks: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Eric Lindquist: Mookie Betts to Win
There is nothing like starting off the All-Star Break by betting on a 5-foot-9, 180-pound dude to win a power competition! Mookie Betts enters this year’s Home Run Derby as a major wild card, tied with Adley Rutschman at +1700 (5.6%) as the longest shot on the board at FanDuel. But despite this big number, Mookie’s actual chances to win should be much greater than this based on his season-long batted ball profile.
For starters, he’s tied with Luis Robert Jr. and Pete Alonso for the most home runs this season amongst players in the competition (26). And while his max exit velocity of 110.1 mph is the lowest in the field — meaning his hardest-hit balls don’t travel as far as his peers’ — his launch angle of 19.7 degrees is actually the highest of anyone in the field. With the average home run launched well north of that number, his lack of raw power could be more than made up for by his natural swing. So while rightfully not the favorite, these inflated odds, combined with his ability to hit up on the ball, are simply too good not to take a shot on.
Home Run Derby Pick: Mookie Betts +1700 at FanDuel
Eytan Shander: Randy Arozarena vs. Adolis Garcia Round 1
I’m going to stay off the beaten path and avoid any bets involving Pete Alonso. Coming back from a wrist injury in an exhibition event doesn’t give me much confidence. If there’s anyone to bet on overcoming anything this year in order to win the event, the best bet to win is Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – despite this already taking some heavy money. Vlad is crushing the ball this year and should be able to work a couple of streaks in each of the first two rounds. Getting past Alonso is the biggest hurdle but the latter should bow out early.
If you’re looking for a slam dunk in the first round, try Randy Arozarena over Adolis Garcia at +118 (45.9%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. Arozarena has the second-highest exit velocity in the field and is crushing the ball with a 91% hard-hit rate. There won’t be many lightly or mis-hit balls from Arozarena, which could be a major difference-maker in the early stages of the competition.
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Home Run Derby Pick: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to Win +400 at Caesars
Home Run Derby Matchup: Randy Arozarena vs. Adolis Garcia +118 at FanDuel
Isaiah Sirois: Longest Home Run O/U 490.5 Feet
This is an absurdly high number to set for the longest home run on Monday night. Only one home run hit this season, a 493-foot dinger from Shohei Ohtani has beaten it. I’m backing the under on this market, and we’ll find the highest number for it at DraftKings.
Going the distance in the Home Run Derby is certainly easier than in real games, but we just don’t see dingers go this long every year. Excluding the 2021 Home Run Derby at Coors Field, four of Aaron Judge’s 2017 dingers are the only ones in the Statcast era to go for over 500 feet.
Seattle’s T-Mobile Park hasn’t been helpful to hitters. Environmental park factors reveal that the stadium has given batters negative extra feet of distance each year since the Statcast era began. Don’t expect that to change Monday night.
Home Run Derby Pick: Longest Home Run Under 490.5 Feet -125 at DraftKings
Tommy Stokke: Luis Robert Jr. to Win & Exact Matchup
I want no part of the right side of this bracket. Pete Alonso vs. Julio Rodriguez? Mookie Betts vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.? That’s quite the gauntlet.
Maybe somewhat quietly, Luis Robert Jr. is the No. 1 seed in this bracket with his 26 home runs. That April where he hit .213 with 5 homers and a .407 slugging seems like a long time ago — or maybe you stopped paying attention to the White Sox after April and didn’t realize how hot Robert’s been since then.
His barrel rate is the best of his career, and he has 18 homers in his last 28 games, so he’s been seeing the ball like it’s a Home Run Derby for a while now.
I like his draw with Adley Rutschman in the first round and a potential semifinal matchup against either Randy Arozarena or Adolis Garcia. Hopefully, by the time he reaches the finals, his opponent is a little more worn out after two high-quality opponents. This tournament is set up perfectly for Robert — no one loves hitting home runs with the bases empty like he does.
Home Run Derby Pick: Luis Robert +550 at Caesars
Home Run Derby Exact Outcome Bet: Luis Robert over Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +1600 at DraftKings
