Our MLB betting model is really popping right now, with several home run bets coming in +EV leading up to the afternoon action. One guy is standing out the most, however: Adley Rutschman. Now let’s get into our MLB betting tools and find ourselves a winning MLB home run pick!
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Sunday, May 26
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adley Rutschman
Power isn’t necessarily the biggest part of Rutschman’s approach — despite his participation in the Home Run Derby. Also, today’s matchup for him is the one White Sox opponent who is actually formidable, Garrett Crochet.
But that’s why the expected win rate is only 15%. We’re not just about chances of winning here at OddsShopper; we are more concerned with market value and the edges created via odds discrepancies.
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This Rutschman home run pick is a perfect example. Our MLB betting model has the True Odds for Rutschman hitting a home run at +576, so anything longer than that is +EV.
Most sportsbooks have gone along with those True Odds and set their odds well below that mark. BetRivers, on the other hand, has given us bettors more value at +600.
Rutschman has nine home runs on the year, and though he has more home runs versus righties, the switch-hitter has been considerably better overall in lefty-righty matchups. His OPS is a whopping 1.124, his average .429 and his ISO .242 — all elite numbers — and the sample is roughly half that of his sample against righties. In other words, there are enough at-bats against lefties to consider the sample actionable.
With the odds and passable expected win rate, Rutschman to hit a home run is 3.6% +EV at BetRivers.
MLB Home Run Pick Today: Adley Rutschman (+600 at BetRivers)
For the best price currently available, check out our Adley Rutschman home run live odds page!
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