The last time I wrote the home run picks column, we cashed a nice +420 ticket on Marcell Ozuna and a +130 ticket on Kyle Tucker’s total bases. I’m hoping to roll that momentum forward into tonight’s slate, which doesn’t have a ton of juicy targets but does have just enough for us to eke out some value. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Twins-Guardians and Orioles-Angels. We’re trusting Max Kepler to keep hitting well against a beatable RHP Lucas Giolito.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Monday, September 4
Twins-Guardians Home Run Pick
When: 6:10 p.m. ET
Where: Progressive Field, Cleveland
Isaiah’s Target: Max Kepler at FanDuel
Different teams really keep trotting out RHP Lucas Giolito while expecting a different result. It has been a season to forget for the once-promising pitcher, as he owns a 4.51 xERA and .398 xSLG allowed, both of which are in the MLB’s bottom third. Worse, he has coughed up 30 actual and 27.9 expected home runs, largely due to his 13th-percentile barrel rate and 33rd-percentile hard-hit rate. Both righties and lefties have feasted against Giolito this year, but LHBs have homered at a slightly faster clip than RHBs, going yard in 5.8% of their at-bats relative to the 4.7% for RHBs.
Few targets stand out more than LHB Max Kepler in this spot. Kepler has hit 21 actual and 22.6 expected home runs, 24 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Progressive Field. He owns some pretty elite hitting stats as well — his .274 xBA is in the 83rd percentile, while his .511 xSLG is in the 90th. His 12.3% barrel rate also slots in the 81st percentile. He also fares best against RHPs like Giolito, against whom he has hit 17 home runs and owns a .495 SLG. Giolito also relies on his four-seam fastball, which is great for Kepler, who owns a .707 xSLG and a 60.5% hard-hit rate against those pitches.
Kepler has gone yard against Giolito before, and we can find an off-market number for him to hit a home run at FanDuel Sportsbook. The two have lined up against each other for 46 plate appearances, through which Kepler is hitting .293 with five extra-base hits, three home runs and a .585 SLG. You’ll find Kepler priced down at only +353 (22.1%) to hit a home run at Pinnacle, a sharp book, and at +370 (21.3%) at DraftKings, so let’s lock in the +460 (17.9%) at FanDuel. Pair this with a wager on him to record multiple bases at odds of +115 (46.5%) at DraftKings.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Max Kepler +460 at FanDuel
Orioles-Angels Home Run Pick
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: Angel Stadium, Los Angeles
OddsShopper’s Target: Gunnar Henderson at FanDuel
It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the slate latest game: Orioles-Angels. The model thinks there is plenty of value on rookie sensation Gunnar Henderson at odds of +560 (%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Henderson has hit 22 actual and 21.1 expected home runs this year, 22 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Angel Stadium. Note that 10 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Henderson draws a matchup with LHP Kenny Rosenberg, who has started to see action for the Angels as they wave the white flag this season. Across two starts and seven innings pitched, Rosenberg is yet to cough up a home run but has allowed opposing batters to hit .310 with a .379 SLG, surrendering a pair of extra-base hits in the process. Rosenberg has allowed 14 home runs across 20 starts and 100 innings pitched at AAA.
That said, the model doesn’t care about stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +425 (19.1%). Our model thinks a fair price is +522 (16.1%), so we’re beating the market (ever so slightly) and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +560 (15.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Gunnar Henderson +560 at FanDuel
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