It’s college football Saturday, but value abounds in the MLB, so we can’t just forget about baseball. Let’s turn to tonight’s slate, where I want action on one member of the San Diego Padres, and OddsShopper’s model wants action on a member of the Atlanta Braves. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Pirates-Braves and Padres-Asros. We’re trusting Juan Soto on the road against RHP Cristian Javier.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Saturday, September 9
Padres-Astros Home Run Pick
When: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston
Isaiah’s Target: Juan Soto at FanDuel
Death, taxes and RHP Cristian Javier coughing up the long ball. The veteran pitcher has surrendered at least one home run in his last six starts. He has just one start without a home run surrendered since late June, and that exception came in the Oakland Coliseum, a pitcher-friendly park home to an embarrassingly bad offense. Javier owns a .461 xSLG and a 4.70 xERA, which are both well below the league average. He has also coughed up 22 actual and 26.7 expected home runs, the ninth-most in baseball.
LHB Juan Soto is the perfect player to use when fading Soto. The left-handed slugger has feasted against RHPs for 22 home runs and is slashing .264/.412/.525 against them. Soto leads the Padres with 28 actual and 25.5 expected home runs, 26 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Minute Maid Park. Soto’s .511 xSLG ranks in the 90th percentile, and his 93 mph average exit velocity is in the 94th. His 55.3% hard-hit rate is in the 99th percentile as well.
Soto has cooled down slightly after opening the month with home runs in three straight games, but he should bounce back against an exploitable pitcher tonight. In one career at-bat against Javier, Soto mashed an RBI double. Let’s get action on him to both hit a home run at odds of +390 (20.4%) via FanDuel Sportsbook and to record multiple bases at +120 (45.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. The Padres may be down and out, but a playoff run isn’t entirely out of the cards for them yet.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Juan Soto +390 at FanDuel
Pirates-Braves Home Run Pick
When: 7:20 p.m. ET
Where: Truist Park, Atlanta
OddsShopper’s Target: Marcell Ozuna at FanDuel
It’s time for OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in tonight’s Pirates-Braves game. The model wants exposure to veteran slugger RHB Marcell Ozuna at odds of +430 (18.9%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Ozuna has been excellent for the Braves this year, mashing 33 actual and 30.5 expected home runs. Note that eight other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
The Braves are headed for a deep playoff run, so besting the lowly Pirates and RHP Johan Oviedo won’t be hard — especially because of Oviedo’s struggles with the long ball. The 25-year-old pitcher has coughed up 17 actual and 19.9 expected home runs. A whopping 23 of his hits allowed would’ve cleared the fences at Truist Park as well. Oviedo tends to fare better against same-handed batters, and Ozuna fares better against opposite-handed hurlers, but Pittsburgh’s bullpen will prove beatable as well.
The model doesn’t care about stats and splits — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +330 (23.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +430 (18.9%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +430 (18.9%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Marcell Ozuna +430 at FanDuel
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