After a nice week in which we cashed a +750 ticket for Alec Bohm, a +400 ticket for Randy Arozarena and a +330 ticket for Luis Robert Jr. (I only wrote this article four days), I’m looking to keep the money printer running this week. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Yankees-Tigers and Diamondbacks-Dodgers. We’re trusting a star in the making, Riley Greene, to go yard at his home stadium.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Monday, August 28
Yankees-Tigers Home Run Pick
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Comerica Park, Detroit
Isaiah’s Target: Riley Greene at FanDuel
The Detroit Tigers will take on the New York Yankees and RHP Luis Severino at home this evening. Although Severino had a decent outing in his last start, surrendering only one hit across 6.2 innings pitched, he was also taking on the Washington Nationals. The Tigers may not be good, but they aren’t nearly as bad. Severino owns a 6.52 xERA and .520 xSLG allowed, both of which are in the second percentile. He also leads the Yankees with 20 actual and 20.9 expected home runs allowed, 20 of which would’ve cleared the fences in Detroit.
Greene is in an excellent position to go yard against Severino in this spot. For one, Severino has fared terribly against opposite-handed batters like Greene, coughing up 10 home runs and a .619 SLG to them this year. Similarly, Greene has capitalized against RHPs, recording 11 home runs and a .489 SLG against them. Greene has 11 actual and 12 expected home runs to his name, 13 of which would’ve counted in Detroit, and his .500 xSLG and .287 xBA are both team-bests. Greene is in the 88th and 92nd percentile for those stats, respectively.
I’m not really sure why, but some books have decided to completely disrespect Greene in this matchup. He slots in at odds of +700 (12.5%) via FanDuel Sportsbook to go yard, which is much longer than the +550 (15.4%) at DraftKings. Those subscribed to Insider Access were able to buy this at +750 (11.8%). Pair a wager on Greene to go yard with one on him to record multiple bases at odds of +130 (43.5%) via DraftKings Sportsbook. Just because Severino had a good outing on his last trip to the mound doesn’t mean he’ll have another tonight.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Riley Greene +700 at FanDuel
Diamondbacks-Dodgers Home Run Pick
When: 10:10 p.m. ET
Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles
OddsShopper’s Target: Tommy Pham at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on one of today’s late games: Diamondbacks-Dodgers. The model wants action on Tommy Pham at odds of +830 (10.8%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Pham has hit 13 actual and 14.6 expected home runs this year, 17 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Dodger Stadium. Note that six other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Pham will take on the Dodgers and RHP Bobby Miller. Miller has been solid but not unbeatable this year: he owns a 3.66 xERA and .370 xSLG allowed. He has also coughed up only seven actual and 7.4 expected home runs, eight of which would’ve gone yard at Dodger Stadium. Five of those home runs came in his home appearances, however, which is where he’ll play tonight. Pham has been sneaky efficient this year with a .492 xSLG and .286 xBA, which rank in the 86th and 91st percentiles, respectively.
That said, the model doesn’t care about stats or efficiency — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +600 (14.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +732 (12%), so we’re beating the market and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +830 (10.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Tommy Pham +830 at FanDuel
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