Just about everyone but Max Kepler hit a home run for the Minnesota Twins last night, so at least we cashed a +560 ticket on Gunnar Henderson via the late slate. I’ve got an angle for one player on the Cincinnati Reds, and OddsShopper’s model wants to run back last night’s pick. Let’s dive into today’s best MLB home run picks and bets for Mariners-Reds and Orioles-Angels. We’re trusting Jake Fraley to take advantage of his hitter-friendly home park against RHP Bryce Miller.
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Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks Today for Tuesday, September 5
Mariners-Reds Home Run Pick
When: 6:40 p.m. ET
Where: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati
Isaiah’s Target: Jake Fraley at FanDuel
The Seattle Mariners will visit Great American Ball Park on Tuesday, and that means it’s a great spot to target some of Cincinnati’s bats. The Mariners play in one of the pitcher-friendliest parks in baseball, which this year’s Home Run Derby reminded us all of, so playing in one of the best hitter’s parks is a bit of a reality check for their staff. Tonight’s starter, RHP Bryce Miller, owns a steady 3.62 ERA at home that ticks up to 4.40 on the road. His 3.93 ERA is worse than his 4.49 xERA, and his .395 SLG is worse than his .457 xSLG, so let’s fade him in this spot.
We’re targeting LHB Jake Fraley to hit a home run against Miller. Miller has coughed up 14 actual and 12.8 expected home runs this year, 16 of which would’ve cleared the fences in Cincinnati. LHBs account for nine of those actual home runs and own a .500 SLG. Meanwhile, Fraley has hit 15 actual but only 10.4 expected home runs, but all 15 would’ve counted at home. Nine of those actual home runs came at Great American, where he owns a .515 SLG, and all 15 came against RHPs like Miller, against which he owns a .506 SLG.
Fraley returned early from a toe injury a few games ago and is currently fighting through it. The results have been solid — he is slashing .417/.462/.667 since his return on the first of the month with three doubles but no home runs. While it remains unclear if he has all of his power back, Fraley is mispriced at +520 (16.1%) at FanDuel Sportsbook. You’ll find him priced at +400 (20%) or below across the market, including at places like DraftKings. Pair this with a wager on him to record multiple bases at odds of +115 (46.5%) at DraftKings.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Jake Fraley +520 at FanDuel
Orioles-Angels Home Run Pick
When: 9:40 p.m. ET
Where: Angel Stadium, Los Angeles
OddsShopper’s Target: Gunnar Henderson at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on one of today’s late games: Orioles-Angels. No, you’re not having a case of deja vu — the model (again) thinks there is plenty of value on rookie sensation LHB Gunnar Henderson at odds of +680 (12.8%), a price you’ll find exclusively via FanDuel. Henderson has hit 23 actual and 22 expected home runs this year, 23 of which would’ve cleared the fences at Angel Stadium. Note that 12 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Henderson will take on a beatable LHP Reid Detmers and the rest of the beleaguered Angels bullpen. Detmers has coughed up 18 actual and 15.9 expected home runs this season, 18 of which would’ve cleared the fences at his home park. Same-handed batters like Henderson have beaten up Detmers for six home runs and a .534 SLG, but Henderson himself hasn’t fared perfectly against same-handed pitchers — he has three home runs and a .333 SLG against them this year. You’re probably hoping that Henderson can take advantage of an opposite-handed reliever, but the price is too good to pass up.
The model doesn’t care about stats — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +475 (17.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +623 (13.8%), so we’re beating the market (ever so slightly) and getting some value by playing this MLB home run pick at +680 (12.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail one of the model’s top home run picks today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Gunnar Henderson +680 at FanDuel
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