Thursday is a travel day in the MLB, which means we don’t have a ton of options on tonight’s slate — especially with some of the day’s best options getting underway in the early afternoon. With an eye to the late slate, let’s dive into today’s best home run picks and bets. New to OddsShopper? Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles and have a strategy guide. What’s more, our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from our industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Back These Sleepers Today
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles | 6:40 p.m. ET
Isaiah’s Target: at FanDuel
Don’t go wild with this one, but Tampa Bays’ bats will have some value against Baltimore’s RHP Kyle Gibson. The Baltimore starter has only allowed 10 home runs this year, but he has gotten lucky — he has allowed 11.4 expected home runs to date. Gibson’s 4.77 ERA isn’t great, and it slots in right around his 4.72 xERA. He has struggled against LHBs, as he has given up 25 extra-base hits and five home runs to them across 221 at-bats, good for a .810 OPS.
Luke Raley could step up against Gibson today. The 28-year-old LHB is a split-heavy hitter with 31 extra-base hits and 13 home runs against RHPs this year, good for a .930 OPS. He has one single in three-career at-bats against Gibson. Raley has feasted against the Orioles this season and has seven hits and one home run against them in 14 at-bats, good for an elite 1.248 OPS. He also ranks third on the Rays in both expected home runs at 15.6 and expected weighted on-base average, or xwOBA, at .360.
I’m not a huge fan of the price the books are charging for Raley to hit a home run today, but with so few games on the board, he’s still my favorite pick on the slate. We can buy him to go yard at odds of +480 (17.2%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. However, I recommend splitting your action between that market and his total bases prop — you’ll find the over 1.5 priced at +135 (42.6%) via BetMGM, a much friendlier number than the +110 (47.6%) offered at FanDuel.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Luke Raley +480 at FanDuel
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros | 9:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Shea Langeliers at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes on the last game of the night. Shea Langeliers and the Oakland Athletics will go against RHP J.P. France and the Houston Astros in Texas tonight. France has allowed 10 home runs; Langeliers has hit 10 home runs. Note that 14 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Splits point to some serious value here. Although he is a RHB, nine of Langeliers’ dingers have come against RHPs. Likewise, nine of France’s home runs allowed have been surrendered to RHB. He has also coughed up seven of them at home. Langeliers has struggled to go yard in his home park but has eight home runs on the road. Houston’s Minute Maid Park ranks a solid 16th in park factors for home runs to RHB, so this is another good spot for Langeliers to show off his power — he ranks second on the team in expected home runs (13.3).
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +370 (21.3%). Our model thinks a fair price is +480 (17.2%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of value by playing this MLB home run pick at +540 (15.6%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number may not remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Shea Langeliers +540 at FanDuel
