We’ve finally made it. After four days without meaningful baseball — and two days without any baseball at all — the MLB will return from the All-Star Break tonight. Let’s dive into today’s home run picks, including Brenton Doyle, who is a solid bet to go yard at Coors Field. Sign up to access the model’s picks for everything from MLB home run picks to PGA matchup props!
Few sweats are more fun than home run bets. If you want to start making money on your home run picks, OddsShopper has you covered. We post daily home run articles, and our MLB bet shopping pages integrate data from industry-leading betting model to identify home run picks with positive expected value (+EV) each day. You can also check out our guide to beating the Dinger Tuesday promotion at FanDuel. If you’re hungry for more than just the picks we post for free, sign up for OddsShopper Premium today — new users can get their first month for 70% off.
Best MLB Home Run Bets & Picks: Back This Longshot at Coors Field
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | 7:10 p.m. ET on Apple TV+
Isaiah’s Target: Francisco Lindor at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s model agree that this home run pick is sharp, although I believe it has more value than it does. FanDuel has set the odds for Francisco Lindor to hit a home run at an off-market +500 (16.7%) while just about every other book has odds of +380 (20.8%) or shorter. We’re getting more than enough value to warrant a small wager for market-based reasons, but I want a full unit of action spread across the home run and total base odds.
Lindor draws a matchup against a tepid LHP Julio Urias. Urias has given up 14 home runs and 13.8 expected home runs this season, which ranks 38th overall. However, he has an unusually high no-doubter percentage at 71.4%, which suggests he is less prone to variance than other pitchers in this range. Urias owns a 4.76 ERA and 4.06 xERA as well. He has avoided giving up a dinger in both of his starts this month but gave up seven in his three immediately prior starts.
Although he struggled with the Mets early, Lindor has performed steadily this season. He has hit 19 home runs and 18.7 expected home runs, both of which rank second on the Mets. He also owns a .356 expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA), which ranks third on the team. Lindor, a switch-hitter, has a chance to take advantage of a split-heavy pitcher in Urias, who has allowed 2- extra-base hits and 10 home runs to RHBs.
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Best MLB Home Run Bet: Francisco Lindor +500 at FanDuel
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Yankees | 8:40 p.m. ET
OddsShopper’s Target: Brenton Doyle at FanDuel
Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s pick, which comes in on the late slate. The New York Yankees will visit Coors Field tonight, but with them trotting out LHP Carlos Rodon, the model wants action on Colorado’s Brenton Doyle. Note that 15 other home run picks are popping with positive expected value in OddsShopper’s market-based model; you can even get 70% off your first month!
Doyle, a 25-year-old outfielder, has looked solid for the Rockies thus far. We’ve seen him hit six home runs on 5.8 expected home runs to date while recording a .287 xwOBA. Those numbers aren’t great, but because this game will take place at Coors Field, it’s hard to ignore longshots like Doyle. Four of his six home runs have come at home, where he owns a .628 OPS.
That said, the model doesn’t care about those factors — this is purely a market-based edge. DraftKings lists this home run bet at odds of +550 (15.4%). Our model thinks a fair price is +721 (12.2%), so we’re beating the market and getting a ton of edge by playing this MLB home run pick at +830 (10.8%) via FanDuel Sportsbook. This number is unlikely to remain on the market forever, so if you want to tail the model’s top home run pick today, get your action down soon!
Best MLB Home Run Bet: Brenton Doyle +830 at FanDuel
